Bleak Prospects at Durban
By Dr Arvind Kumar
The 17th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP17) opened in Durban, South Africa, on 28 November this year without much fanfare. About 195 countries, including India, are taking part in it. The focus of discussions is on what to do after the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the only binding climate agreement at present, expires at the end of 2012. The Kyoto treaty imposes greenhouse gas emission cuts on developed countries, with the commitment period set from 2008 to 2012, among other provisions. Undoubtedly, the COP-17 continues through Dec. 9, but it is not expected to produce a long-term comprehensive framework requiring both developed and developing countries to cut emissions. Among the developing countries, however, there are calls for revising the protocol to create a second commitment period for reduction efforts by developed countries that are party to it.
While opposing such a revision, Japan has said it will not accept any second commitment period obligations under an extended and revised Kyoto Protocol. It has even decided to withdraw from the Kyoto regime if a revision is adopted. Japan argues that the two major emitting countries — the United States and China — are not part of the current reduction efforts and that a comprehensive scheme participated in by both countries must be created. Some environmentalists have questioned the Obama administration’s negotiating strategy in Durban; 16 environmental leaders sent a letter on 29 November to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton suggesting that her deputies commit to negotiating a binding climate pact by 2020. The climate treaty is weaker not stronger and as such prospects of reaching any tangible accord at Durban seem bleak.
