Pakistan’s newly-installed President Asif Ali Zardari recently visited China, Pakistan’s trusted and tested friend. This visit came at a time when Pakistan is troubled on several fronts: its economy has hit rock bottom, it is unable to effectively counter the rising challenge of militancy and terrorism and its relationship with the US is more strained than it has ever been in the past eight years. Over the years, both countries have forged a relationship of trust, friendship and reciprocity with China. And this is the relationship that can possibly help Pakistan out of its current quagmire.
It is noteworthy that the pattern of Sino-Pakistan relations has remained unaffected by the change of leadership on either side. Be it military dictatorship or installation of civilian government in Islamabad, China has eagerly maintained its friendly relations with Pakistan.
During the course of Pakistani President Zardari’s recent visit to Beijing, several agreements on economic and technical cooperation were signed between the two countries. President Zardari also sought a loan of $ 1.5 – 2 billion as cash injection to resurrect his country’s ailing economy.
There has also been talk of China aiding Pakistan in building a civilian nuclear programme, a la India-US arrangement. The Pak policymakers, political analysts and general population at large are very optimistic about the Zardari visit bolstering relations between the neighbours that have been historically very close.
In recent years, China has recorded burgeoning economic growth. It has also gone to great lengths to increase its regional and international influence by technological and cultural advancements. Beijing has an insatiable appetite for resources and trade and Pakistan can make use of these significant advantages from this. There has been some progress in development of trade ties between the two countries.
In 2006, the two countries signed a trade agreement to increase trade to $ 2 bn by 2011. China is also involved in building telecommunications, construction and energy sectors in Pakistan.
However; it is noteworthy that in the past eight years, Pakistan has failed to aggressively pursue its links with China, choosing to concentrate its energies on allying with the US to fight the war on terror. Yet Washington has merely sought an alliance of convenience with Islamabad. After nearly eight years into the war on terror, the strategic association between Islamabad and Washington is marked with ambiguity, strain and lack of common objectives.
Pakistan has also failed to provide adequate security to the thousands of Chinese technicians, entrepreneurs and workers stationed in Pakistan. Moreover, rebels in China’s autonomous province of Xinjiang Uighur are also alleged to have links with militants in Pakistan.
Nonetheless, the recent visit of Pakistani President to Beijing is bound to open a fresh avenue for Islamabad to make amends for its past lapses and renew efforts for bringing traditionally friendly relations on better keel. During the course of his visit to China, President Zardari and the Chinese President Hu Zinato signed 12 agreements, memorandums of understanding and protocols to enhance cooperation on a sound footing in various sectors, including infrastructure, information technology, energy, telecommunication, agriculture, industry, minerals, trade, disaster relief and space technology.
President Hu Jintao hosted a banquet in honour of President Zardari and his delegation after the delegation-level parleys and the agreement-signing ceremony. During their talks, both sides agreed to strengthen strategic partnership in all sectors, reinvigorate the multi-faceted bilateral relations, intensify economic cooperation and foster people-to-people contacts.
Pakistan’s Ambassador to China Masood Khan told media personnel after the signing ceremony that the talks laid stress on fostering economic cooperation on a strong footing. President Hu Jintao and President Zardari expressed satisfaction over the growth of Pakistan-China relations and agreed that their friendship had emerged stronger with every important change in the international, regional and domestic environment.
According to media reports, the two leaders stressed the need for reinforcing efforts for “deepening the Pakistan-China strategic partnership in new circumstances.”
The two sides decided to accelerate the implementation of the Five-Year Development Programme on Economic Cooperation. While reiterating China’s support for Pakistan’s efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity, President Hu Jintao condemned recent terrorist atttacks in Pakistan and appreciated sacrifices rendered by Pakistan in its struggle against global terrorism.
Reiterating Pakistan’s desire for strong and long-term relationship with China, President Zardari reaffirmed Pakistan’s resolve to continue its fight against terrorism and extremism. He said the fight was in Pakistan’s own interest, adding that terrorism threatened the country’s stability.
Earlier, during a luncheon meeting with over 200 top corporate executives at the State Guest House, President Zardari offered ‘special preferential treatment’ to Chinese investors and urged them to invest in Pakistan and benefit from its geo-strategic location.
While addressing the Chinese business executives, visiting Pakistani President said: “With a well-placed geographical location, Pakistan has to offer you the investor-friendly environment, laws and legislation, human capital and other resources.”
Describing his Beijing visit as reflective of the deep-rooted, strong and historic 40-year ties between the two countries, President Zardari said Pakistan provided ample opportunities for investment in trade, industry, financial services, banking, energy, construction, real estate and tourism sectors and Chinese companies were welcome to invest in these fields to help develop the country’s untapped potential.
Asserting that with half of the world population living in China and Saarc countries, the increased China-Pakistan cooperation could promote development and prosperity in the region, President Zardari said that Pakistan’s location at the confluence of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East and its vast coastline provided a trade and energy corridor to many regional countries.
Following are the key agreements signed between China and Pakistan during the recent visit of President Zardari to Beijing:
- Agreement on economic and technical cooperation;
- Amending protocol to Free Trade Agreement;
- Framework agreement to set up $300 million National Electronics Complex in Pakistan;
- Framework agreement on mineral cooperation;
- MoU on cooperation in petroleum and natural resources;
- Agreement on environmental protection;
- Framework agreement for cooperation in the field of radio and television;
- Paksat-IR Satellite procurement contract;
- MoU on scientific collaboration in agricultural research and technical cooperation, and;
- MoU on cooperation between China’s Cricket Association and the Pakistan Cricket Board.
It is worth mentioning here that during the decade of the 1960s, Pakistan, then a member of Western alliances in Middle East and Southeast Asia, defied considerable American pressure to seek a strategic relationship with China. However, at the outset of the 21st Century, China has emerged as a world power and some of the factors that created that earlier entente have undergone material change.
The process of upgrading and reorienting relations that have by and large stood the test of time was highlighted during the past exchange of high level visits between the two countries. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was in Pakistan in April 2005. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf visited Beijing in February 2006 while President Hu Jintao of China was in Islamabad in November 2006.
The extended visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to China in April 2007 was part of the same endeavor to re-define and deepen relations. In 2005, China was instrumental in Pakistan getting the status of an observer at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and more recently, Pakistan played a key role in China attaining a similar status with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
Pakistan’s realignment with the United States in the wake of the 9/11 attacks was often seen as a tipping point where other linkages might get relegated to a secondary order.
China’s burgeoning trade with India and its increasing awareness of a global role were similarly cited as reasons for a diminished interest in Pakistan. Neither of these scenarios came to pass. Instead, a new profile of a bilateral alliance has emerged and at its heart lies the promise of Pakistan as a conduit of energy and strategic commodities for China by virtue of its geographical location. A potentially dramatic factor in the emerging scene is the new Pakistani deep-sea port of Gwadar in which the Chinese invested $200 million.
The promise is not without some peril. In fact, some observers are already talking about a new Great Game centered on this port. It is not difficult to predict that the next two decades would witness considerable turbulence as the United States comes to terms only reluctantly with pressures for a multipolar world.
Cooperation, competition and even conflict are likely to delineate this tangled process in which the control of energy resources will be a major determinant. In promoting itself as an energy corridor to China in particular and South and East Asia in general, Pakistan may be claiming a degree of sovereign decision-making that in the judgment of many analysts can become a potential irritant in Pakistan-US relations. Washington is not indifferent to Pakistan’s looming energy crisis or, for that matter, its economic growth.
However, Pakistani policy makers favour solutions that remain subordinate to Pakistan’s global agenda. Viewed in a broad perspective, Islamabad is opposed to the eminently feasible Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline that offers the additional advantage of giving India and Pakistan a joint stake in regional peace. Pakistan, according to some observers, is willing to help promote a gas pipeline to South Asia from Turkmenistan and a hydroelectric power grid from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan, projects which are today vulnerable to instability in Afghanistan and even Turkmenistan’s ability to supply gas in quantity after its recent agreements with the Russian Federation.
Former President Musharraf’s wholehearted commitment to the US-led war on terror and his frequent claims that the alliance he had forged with Washington this time was for the long haul did not enjoy universal support in Pakistan. A sizable section of informed opinion had little faith in the reliability of relations with Washington beyond the exigency of the present conflict in Afghanistan that depends heavily on assistance from Pakistan.
Some observers in Pakistan feel that the strong differentiation made by the United States between Pakistan and India on the question of sophisticated American participation in peaceful nuclear energy programs has become an argument for enhancing relations with Beijing. China is the only country in the world that has helped Pakistan set up a nuclear power reactor and may be open to Pakistani requests for more reactors. It is also seen as the friend that has made a visible contribution to Pakistan’s capacity building in several civil and defense-related sectors. More than twenty agreements in public and private sectors had been signed during Shaukat Aziz’s 2007 visit to China. There was a clear security symbolism in many of his engagements outside Beijing.
There are formidable problems in creating an all-weather corridor from Gwadar to Xinjiang through Pakistan’s majestic mountain ranges but, if successful, the project will enormously reduce the distance and expense, making China a very serious player in a region that the United States traditionally dominates. Pakistan is the geopolitical hub for bringing China, the Gulf including Iran and Africa into a thriving economic interaction. China seems willing to make the enterprise worthwhile for Pakistan by further diversifying cooperation. China is also keen to make a large investment in Pakistan’s chronically weak manufacturing sector. It is also a partner of Pakistan in defense technology and production.
The great fluctuations in Pakistan-US relations ranging from close collaboration in the Cold War to harsh American sanctions from time to time have in the past been largely caused by unilateral American perceptions of the need for maintaining an alliance with Pakistan. Against this checkered backdrop, Pakistani diplomacy faces the challenge of persuading the United States that Pakistan needs to supplement an enduring alliance with it with a robust regional role in cooperation with China and perhaps in the years ahead also with India.
In the meanwhile, Pakistan’s dependence on Beijing in terms of economy, defence and energy is prone to grow in coming years. Besides, Beijing is Islamabad’s trusted and tested friend when it comes to Pakistan seeking parity with India in traditional, nuclear and strategic fields. However, it is to be seen whether in view of growing level of China-India interaction in various fields will put a check on Beijing’s dealings with Islamabad or not.
Dr. Arvind Kumar: Article published in Third Concept/November 2008/Vol.22/No.261/P.No.7/
