By FGR Bureau
The closing part of the first week of October 2018 witnessed the release of the latest report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which formally sounded a warning signal that global warming is occurring at a faster pace than anticipated and that it could have devastating impacts if steps are not taken to cut down emissions. Even prior to the release of IPCC’s report, strict warnings have been issued by the scientists from time to time that failure to halt or significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) could cause irreparable loss to the Earth, society and human civilization. Critical thresholds for change are imminent owing to time lapses between the issuance of warning and the deadlines coupled with acceleration in the pace of change.
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Attainment of “net zero” is not a technical problem, rather its solution requires social, economic and political considerations, which according to some experts, are well beyond the world’s current capacity. |
According to the IPCC report, keeping global warming below a critical limit warrants “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.” Therefore, immediate action is called for. Warning by the report that global temperatures have already risen by about 1 degree could also mean that the world is already two-thirds of the way to the 1.5 C threshold set as a target by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC) Accord. If the world continues its current trajectory, that level will be reached in 2030. Adverse impact of rising global warming is already discernible in terms of rising sea levels, more extreme weather, melting of Arctics etc. The report also laments that even if countries honored their pledges as part of the PACC, rise in temperatures world-wide could be about 3 degrees on average by the end of the century.
The earlier belief that 1.5 C was a good target and 2 C was “the limit,” holds no water now, as one expert has opined that at the current juncture 2 degrees is intolerable for some parts of the world, and 1.5 degrees is the new mantra. Many experts believe that global net emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach “net zero” by mid-century if the 1.5-degree target is to be attained. However, attainment of this “possibility” would require a virtual transformation of modern societies, forcing change in energy policy, urban policy, construction and transportation; for which the IPCC reports points out the absence of any “documented historic precedent” for such a shift.
In the wake of the fact that current global carbon dioxide emissions total 40 billion tons a year, attaining the1.5-degree target entails reductions in emissions in the ensuing decade of more than 1 billion tons per year, which according to some experts, exceeds the emissions of virtually all emitting countries. Attainment of “net zero” is not a technical problem, rather its solution requires social, economic and political considerations, which according to some experts, are well beyond the world’s current capacity. In other words, attaining the goal of net zero emissions in just four decades is seemingly a huge challenge; nevertheless, as many experts agree, it is technically possible, and at an acceptably low cost to the global economy.
Some experts are of the view that a massive increase in the role of electricity can envisage a feasible path for a low carbon economy and eventually, net zero carbon dioxide emissions. It is argued that the share of electricity in final energy demand will have to grow from around 20 percent at current level to around 60 percent by middle to latter half of the century, and total global electricity generation will have to rise dramatically, from around 25,000 TeraWatt-Hours at current level to as much as 100,000 TWh. It is equally significant that bulk of this energy should come from low-carbon sources, especially from renewable sources.
India and IPCC Report
India is not immune to the adverse impacts of global warming, as pointed in the IPCC’s report on global warming. The report notes that in terms of impacts of global warming, the world is already witnessing the consequences of 1-degree global warming in the form of extreme weather events, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice. Further rise in temperature entail the possibility of resulting in long-lasting or irreversible changes culminating in loss of some ecosystems. Inadequate measures in addressing the global warming can push India among the worst hit countries that may face wrath of calamities like floods and heatwaves, and reduced GDP.
According to climate experts, in South Asia, India, Pakistan and China are hotspots in a warming world. All climate projections point out that these regions will be vulnerable to multiple and overlapping hazards at even 1.5-degree rise and the consequential impacts would include intensified droughts and water stress, heatwaves, habitat degradation, and reduced crop yields. It is further argued by the same experts that, as indicated by the IPCC report, increase in global temperature up to 2-degree C instead of 1.5-degree C, entails the likelihood of impacting economic growth or reduced GDP growth on countries like India, and those in South-East Asia and Africa. There is also possibility of increasing frequency of floods of all kinds – riverine floods, those due to snow melt and coastal flooding due to sea level rise are increasing, and are projected to increase further. Appropriate policy changes in sectors like land, energy, industry, buildings, transport and urban development are called for to limit global warming.
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