Dr. Arvind Kumar*
Even if emissions are cut as promised in the Paris Agreement levels, there is the likelihood that many parts of northern and coastal India reaching dangerously wet-bulb temperatures of over 310 C towards the end of the present century. Under RCP 8.5, denoting a high emissions scenario
Sounding of warning signals for the world in general and India, in particular, are discernible from the Sixth Assessment Report of the II Working Group of the IPCC on Climate Change 2022 released by the IPCC on February 28. Asserting that human-induced heat and humidity worldwide are likely to generate conditions beyond human tolerance if the rapid pace of elimination of emissions is not ensured, the new IPCC report cautions that India is among the places that would experience such intolerable conditions.
Alluding to wet-bulb temperatures, a measure that connects heat and humidity, the IPCC report notes that wet-bulb temperatures of 310 Care extremely dangerous for humans, whereas a value of 350 C is un-survivable for more than six hours, even for fit and healthy adults seeking rest in the shade. And in temperatures below these levels, the heat can be deadly, specifically for old or young people, those engaged in hard physical work. Nevertheless, as far as India is concerned, at the current juncture, wet-bulb temperatures seldom exceed 310 C, with most parts of the country experiencing maximum wet-bulb temperatures of 25-30 degrees Celsius.
Interestingly, the release of the IPCC’s new report takes place at a time when the world badly needs strong multilateralism to promote peace and a healthy environment, particularly having been witness to the devastation caused by COVID-19 and its variants like Omicron and the vagaries of climate change. And the warning signaled by this report is clear that climate change cannot be expected to be lurking around the corner waiting to pounce, rather it is already affecting humankind.
Dangerous disruptions across the globe, migration of species in quest of more liveable places, huge loss of human lives due to floods, droughts, and storms, etc., have all increased 15 times higher compared to those in more resilient countries during the past decade. Indigenous people and local communities inhabiting vulnerable regions have to bear the brunt. And all this is happening at only 1.10 C of global warming. And some scientists argue that if global warming is limited to 1.50 C, climate change, it will hit harder and faster. Given the current situation, the world is inching closer to 30 C and that lands us in an emergency, and we are heading for a disaster.
Vagaries of climate change spare none. Scientists have time and again warned that time has really run out to ensure a ‘liveable future’ for all. IPCC report clearly cautions that rising temperatures are prone to cause the extinction of species, ecosystem collapse, spread of insect-borne diseases, deadly heatwaves and mega-storms, water shortages, reduced crops yields, etc.
Cost of inaction
Every fraction of a degree variation in temperature is enhancing the probability of climate-induced threats. 2021 was characterized by a cascade of unprecedented floods, heatwaves, and wildfires around the globe. IPCC report projects acceleration of such events in ensuing decades, albeit the pollution emanating from fossil fuel drives climate change is swiftly brought to a halt. Irreversible dire effects of climate change, such as the demise of almost all shallow-water corals are already discernible.
The 2015 Paris Agreement vouchsafes for aspirational targets of capping global warming at 1.50 C above pre-industrial levels, which is often considered as a safer threshold. The report denotes that even in optimistic scenarios of rapid reductions in carbon emissions, projections of climate impacts are sobering, and this is attested to by the fact that up to 14 percent of land species are confronted with a “very high” risk of extinction with only 1.50 C of warming. And this necessitates urgency for the conservation of 30 to 50 percent of the world’s land and ocean territory.
Projections for the coastal areas and the people inhabiting these areas are no good news. According to this report, by 2050, there would be more than a billion people in coastal areas highly vulnerable to storm surges amplified by rising sea levels by 2050, and the poor would be the hardest hit. It further adds that an additional 410 million people will be exposed to water scarcity from severe drought at 20 C of warming, and up to 80 million will be at risk of hunger by the mid-20th century. Approximately $ 10 trillion of assets are likely to be at risk in flood-prone coastal areas in a moderate greenhouse scenario by 2100.
Humankind’s efforts for a climate-addled world are getting demolished by the increasing pace of global warming. Experts are unanimous in their agreement about the findings of the IPCC report that sheds light on irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes in the climate system known as tipping points, triggered at different thresholds of global heating, such as melting of ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic, the morphing of the Amazon basin from tropical forest to savannah, and the disruption of ocean currents that distribute heat across the globe.
Projections with regard to India made in the IPCC report don’t paint a pleasant picture for India. Even if emissions are cut as promised in the Paris Agreement levels, there is the likelihood that many parts of northern and coastal India reaching dangerously wet-bulb temperatures of over 310 C towards the end of the present century. Under RCP 8.5, denoting a high emissions scenario, Lucknow and Patna cities are projected to reach wet-bulb temperatures of 350 C, provided emissions continue to rise, by the closing part of the present century. Cities like Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Mumbai, Indore, and Ahmedabad are identified as at risk of reaching wet-bulb temperatures of 32-35 degrees Celsius, provided emissions continue. Unabated continuation of emissions entails the potential of making almost all states of India experience wet-bulb 300 C or more by the end of the present century.
The IPCC report citing a study projects that India, which is already a vulnerable country, will be adversely impacted by sea-level rise, in terms of submerging more land areas, frequent floods, erosion of land, etc. It further adds that by 2050, around 35 million people in India could face coastal flooding, with 45-50 million at risk, by the end of the present century if emissions are high, and lower emissions could see far fewer people at risk. Predicting that the economic costs of sea-level rise and river flooding for India would also be among the higher in the world, the report adds that direct damage is estimated at between $24 billion if emissions are cut rapidly, and $36 billion, if emissions are high and ice sheets are unstable.
India has already been suffering from the vagaries of climate change. In 2021, India witnessed extreme weather events, especially Cyclone Tauktae and Cyclone Yaas wreaking havoc in the states of Odisha, West Bengal and Karnataka, where lives and livelihoods were impacted beyond redemption. In July 2021, floods in Maharashtra damaged standing crops and it was followed by a 24 percent country-wide rain deficit in August, and 35 percent excess rainin September, and in October that year, harvest-ready crops were destroyed by heavy rains in Kerala. Unprecedented rainfall caused immense loss of life and property in November 2021 in the south India states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka.
As per media reports, India is said to have lost 5.04 million hectares (MHA) crop area to cyclone storms, flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts till November 25, 2021. Another report indicates that India can lose more than 101 billion hours of labour every year in the wake of rising temperatures contributing to global warming. Undoubtedly, some measures are afoot in India to upgrade the loss of productivity owing to climate change; nevertheless, experts opine that we are still way behind and have a long way to go. An earlier IPCC report released in 2021 had cautioned that India would experience more heatwaves – spells of excessively hot weather often characterized by high humidity. In the wake of a persistent increase in emissions, the possibility of longer-lasting of heatwaves is not ruled out.
Experts also point out that India might have already lost 3% of its GDP due to global warming of 10 C over pre-industrial levels, and risks losing 10% of its GDP in the extreme scenario of a 30 C increase, and that could lead to a rise in sea-level, a decline in agricultural productivity, and increased health expenditure.
War Forward
Alarming signals sounded by IPPC’s recent report as well as earlier such reports need to be heeded on a prioritybasis and economic and development plans at all levels of governance should be adhered to address these signals to save the lives and livelihoods of the people. Well-concerted plans are required to address large-scale ecosystem restoration from ocean to mountaintop, including through agreeing to commence negotiations with states and the Centre. There is also a dire need of encouraging nature-based solutions to climate-related problems. This also requires an emphasis on the role of the civil society that is well-acquainted with the ground realities and can also play a pivotal role in galvanizing the local communities in a meaningful way.
*President, India Water Foundation
