Dr. Arvind Kumar*
The current and rapidly evolving geopolitical global situation, especially in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has seemingly been instrumental in envisaging complex and intensifying dilemmas that entail the potential of exacerbating the pall of uncertainty over the existing world order. The international community has been made to confront a situation that entails every likelihood of undermining the very foundations of the prevailing global order. While branding the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear violation of international law as well as an endeavour to unilaterally change the status quo by force, the Western democracies have brooked on delay in not only condemning the Russian military incursions in Ukraine but have also called it totally unacceptable. In the wake of these developments, the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Indo-Pacific region calls for the urgency of upholding the core principles of the international order from the perspective of diplomacy and security.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resultant Western sanctions have reportedly isolated Moscow and its vulnerability to ‘swingeing’ sanctions have pushed Russia into the hands of China, and such a scenario does not augur well for India, which is largely dependent on Moscow for its defence requirements, and, as some experts have pointed out, such a scenario leaves India as the single greatest loser among the third parties, and it is also to be seen as to how Russia will now balance its historic relationship with India while adjusting itself with China under the changed situation, especially at a time when India’s relations with China are not on an even keel.
Japan PM Visits India
Fumio Kishida, paid his first bilateral visit to India on March 19, since his appointment as Prime Minister of Japan, and it was the first visit to India by a Japanese PM since 2017. In an article published in the Indian Express, a renowned English daily published from New Delhi, coinciding with his India visit, PM Kishida wrote that India and Japan are linked by universal values, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, which have been shared through a long history of shared exchange, and both countries are ‘Special Strategic and Global Partners’, which share strategic interests. Terming 2022 as a ‘milestone year’ marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Tokyo and New Delhi, PM Kishida wrote that he was dearly looking forward to this visit, and to be able to feel for himself the tremendous dynamism of India.
While alluding to 70 years of establishment of diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Tokyo, PM Kishida in his article also referred to multiple projects launched by Japan in India over the years, such as a metro system built with the support of Japanese official development assistance (ODA), cars built by Japanese companies running on the streets, and a high-speed rail to make its debut in future. Asserting that people-to-people exchanges between New Delhi and Tokyo are getting advanced despite the challenges being posed by the COVID-19 pandemic situation, PM Kishida noted that cooperation between the two countries has taken giant strides in the area of security, including joint exercises between the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Indian Armed Forces. He also referred to the rapid pace of cooperation developing between Japan, Australia, India, and the US – four countries that share fundamental values, According to PM Kishida, the name ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ suggests that Japan-India relations have evolved into an inclusive and multi-layered relationship based on cultural bonds, firm friendship, and common universal values. Concluding his article in The Indian Express, PM Kishida wrote: “I sincerely hope that my visit to India will open a new chapter in bilateral relations that will deepen the ‘Japan-India Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ even further. I am looking forward to meeting the people of India.”
In his talks with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 19 in New Delhi, the visiting Japanese PM pledged to boost trade between the two countries over the next five years. In a televised press statement, PM Kishida said the boost would benefit industries from urban infrastructure to green energy. Between 2000 and 2019, Japanese investment in India totalled only $32 billion, and on March 19, PM Kishida pledged to invest $42 billion in India in the next five years. Japanese loans finance the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project, several Metro projects, and the dedicated freight corridor.
The occasion was utilised to ink six agreements providing for the expansion of bilateral cooperation in a range of areas, besides, firming a separate clean energy partnership. India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said there were very firsts associated with the visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to India – the first meeting of the two PMs after Kishida took office; Kishida’s first bilateral visit outside Japan; and, the first incoming visit of a PM to India this year. He also noted that the visit comes months before Tokyo hosts an in-person Quad summit.
At a joint media briefing, PM Modi said stronger India-Japan ties would help encourage peace, prosperity and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Stating that both countries understood the importance of a secure and stable energy supply, PM Modi also stated that both sides were determined to expand overall cooperation. The joint briefing also articulated the concern of both leaders about the situation in Myanmar and called for an end to violence, the release of all those detained and a return to the path of democracy. Both sides also reiterated their commitment to further cooperation on tackling climate change and condemned North Korea’s “destabilising ballistic missile launch.”
Indian Stance on Ukraine Crisis
India’s neutral stand on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and India abstaining on UN voting on resolutions condemning Russia has been reportedly appreciated by Moscow in terms of silent support of India for Russia, while Western countries, including the US, have reportedly ‘approved of’ Indian stance, albeit these countries have been pressing India to take a hard stand on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, India has its own strategic interests that dictate the Indian stance on the issue. India’s heavy dependence on the Russian weapon system and their spare parts, and in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, the crisis in the global crude market and the Russian offer of sale of crude oil to India on a heavy discount are the primary factors that have dictated India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
In recent days, the Indian government is facing more pressure from fellow member countries of the Quad – the US, Japan and Australia – to help push Russia toward a cease-fire. Even during his recent visit to New Delhi, the Japanese PM called for more cooperation between democracies while noting Putin’s war had shaken the global order, while PM Modi, by contrast, only dwelt on economic issues. Undoubtedly, India has supported calls for cease-fire and a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis; nonetheless, India abstained at the UN on votes for draft resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion. Even a joint statement of Quad leaders has seemingly failed to condemn Russia.
It is common knowledge that India’s strategic interests are served by maintaining close and friendly relations with both Russia and the Quad members. According to some experts, India remains an important partner of Quad in countering China, especially in the aftermath of deadly clashes between Indian troops and the Chinese troops along the line of actual control (LAC) in the Ladakh region that prompted India to move more troops and Russian weapons to key hotspots, and India has also taken steps to restrict Chinese companies and investment. On being asked whether India could face sanctions for buying Russian weapons, the assistant secretary of state at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs told a US Senate Committee on March 2, “India is a really important security partner of ours now. We value moving ahead in that partnership.” While noting that India had recently hit the brakes on more orders for Russian MiG-29 fighter jets, helicopters and anti-tank weapons, the US official said, “And I hope that part of what happens with the extreme criticism that Russia has faced, is that India will find it’s now time to further distance itself.”
Another worrisome question for India is the growing proximity between Pakistan and Russia, especially after the recent visit of Pakistani PM to Moscow. India joining the Western chorus of condemning Vladimir Putin affords a golden opportunity for Pakistan to court Moscow, a situation India is keen to avoid.
Some Western experts have opined that India would find it hard to maintain a “truly neutral position” without alienating Washington and other Quad members, especially because Moscow has viewed India’s position as “silent support.”India is also availing of the Russian offer of crude oil on heavy discounts, a step Russia has taken to offset the impact of US sanctions. India is said to have procured three-million barrels of crude oil from Russia recently. And, as per media reports, India is not alone in buying Russian crude, rather many European countries, such as Germany have continued to do so, and such a step comes into conflict with the US President Joe Biden’s attempts to isolate the Russian economy with sanctions.
Washington has seemingly been wary of India’s procurement of advanced Russian air defence systems in recent months and the increased flow of Russian crude oil into India in near future entails the potential of earning Washington’s ire. As per media reports, Washington is still contemplating whether to slap sanctions on India or not; and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the issue is being looked at with a ‘different spin’. Some experts feel that the war in Ukraine has generated a complicated geopolitical balancing act for the US which is still making efforts to rally countries to oppose the Russian invasion, and in this scenario, India is also seen as a critical partner for countering China’s rising influence in Asia in general and in the Indo-Pacific in particular. Undoubtedly, Russia has been a thorny issue in US-India relations; nonetheless, Washington “believes the two democracies have more that’s in common than that divides them”, as one analyst has opined.
Besides, India is a member of Quad that brings it closer to Australia, Japan and the US. During the course of his recent visit to New Delhi, the Japanese PM Kishida impressed upon PM Modi to denounce Russian invasion of Ukraine; however, the Indian PM made no direct mention of Ukraine and their joint written statement afterwards called only “for an immediate cessation of violence and noted that there was no other choice but the path of dialogue and diplomacy for resolution of the conflict.’ India has been more vocal about China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region and regards it as the main concern of the Quad, and accordingly, the joint statement of Kishida and Modi “reaffirmed their common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, free from coercion.”
Way Forward
In a recently-held Video Conference, the Quad leaders concurred that any attempt to unilaterally alter the status quo by force ought not to be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific region, and that it is critical to further promote efforts toward the realisation of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the growing military assertiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific region have given rise to complex geopolitical developments that entail the potential of adversely impacting the geo-economic complexion of the region as well. It is in the wake of these developments that Japan’s PM Kishida visited India and in his exchange of views with his Indian counterpart, he raised the following questions: “How can we protect the rules-based international order? Looking towards a post-Covid-19 world, how can we build resilient supply chains and reinvigorate the economy? How can respond to new international challenges like cyber security and climate change?” And PM Kishida himself suggested the answer to these questions when he suggested that both India and Japan can tackle these challenges by taking bold measures. One can hope that burgeoning friendly relations between India and Japan on one hand, and between India and other Quad members on the other, will certainly prove instrumental in surmounting these challenges and will ensure a rule-based international order.
*Editor, Focus Global Reporter
