Dr. Arvind Kumar*
The world faces multiple challenges of war, energy, food shortages, viruses, and recession therefore a global response is needed. The impacts of Covid and the ripple effects of the crisis in Ukraine foretell extreme economic stress and ecological disaster. The developing countries have to come together to redesign global political and financial governance that can remove inequalities and enlarge opportunities. For the south it assumes greater urgency because it, more than the developed world, will be affected more severely by these ill winds. India voicing the concerns of the developing world is a move in the right direction at a time when developing countries are facing the effects of a major economic downturn. It is an opportunity for India to bring to the world’s media, its expertise and accomplishments, especially in the fields of fintech, innovations, tourism sector, green energy, usher in infrastructure development etc especially in context of south south cooperation. India can be the bridge between the developed and the developing world and raise the concerns of the Global South especially with its G20 Presidency.
The Voice of the Global South
The socioeconomic ramifications of contemporary trends in globalization, multilateralism, and geopolitical contestations for 125 countries—representing three-fourths of humankind but a far smaller percentage of global GDP—have recently sparked deep alarm. India is reviving its former reputation as the voice of the Global South. The rhetoric, which had practically subsided, is reinvigorating and rising in the lexicon of the foreign ministry; and presenting itself as the world’s foremost link between affluent industrialised countries and the global south. India’s innovative notion of holding a virtual summit of the “Voice of the Global South” to solicit input for the G20 Summit, which it would host later this year, involved reaching out to a broad cross-section of the developing globe. The heads of Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Guyana, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Senegal, Thailand, and Uzbekistan were all present. The Indian government has made it clear that during its G20 chairmanship, it will serve as the region’s voice.
The rise of India in global governance
For various reasons, India currently has more weight in amplifying the voice of the Global South. India’s current posture has little bearing on its Cold War-era efforts to remove itself from its ideological rivalries and demands to support one side or the other. Currently, the US is India’s largest economic partner, but at the same time, India is preserving its important, long-standing connections with Russia. India has significant commercial ties with China despite the fact that China is its main strategic rival. If India is a part of the Quad, the I2U2 (which unites India, Israel, the US, and the UAE), and is committed to the Indo-Pacific idea, then it is also a part of the BRICS and the SCO. India now occupies a bridge position between rival nations and between industrialised and emerging nations in a completely different setting.
India’s economy currently ranks fifth in the world, but by 2030, it very possibly may be in third place. According to the IMF and the World Bank, India’s growth this year, at over 7%, will be the strongest among the main economies, despite the pressures on the global economy and hints of recession in certain developed economies. India now has its own economic might to support its voice. Its achievements in making advances in global offshoring, digitization, and the energy revolution are the three megatrends that are currently paving the way for the nation of more than 1 billion people to see unheard-of economic growth. India has managed the Covid-19 crisis better than many advanced nations because it relied on its own capabilities to immunise its enormous population and supply desperately needed vaccines to a large number of developing nations at a time when the developed economies were hoarding them for domestic needs.
How effective are India’s domestic efforts?
The India Stack pioneered in the country is now the global benchmark for most countries. Following a spate of digitalization in the government and private sectors, the digital economy has grown by 15.6% over the period 2014 to 2020, 2.4 times faster than the growth of the Indian economy. India is set to surpass Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027 and will have the third-largest stock market by the end of this decade. With strong services exports at US$254.5b in 2021-22, India enjoys a strong foothold especially in the IT and BPO services exports; creating an opportunity to seize a higher share of transformational & expertise-based services to grow faster in the IT services sector.
Furthermore, according to Government of India figures, Start-ups have grown remarkably over the last six years, with India emerging as the third largest ecosystem for start-ups globally; and expected to witness YoY growth of a consistent annual growth of 12-15%. Complimenting the same, PE/VC investments in India have touched record levels, reaching US$82b in FY21-22. India will also generate 25% of the additional global workforce over the ensuing ten years which will not only enhance India’s competitive advantage in the services industry, this huge young and working population will also boost manufacturing and cause a tremendous rise in domestic spending patterns. Massive overhauls in roadways, investments in physical infrastructure are being supplemented by IT-based ease-of-doing-business initiatives under the National Logistics Policy, with an aim to increase efficiency and lower the cost of movement. The government has also set a target to be net zero by 2070 and reduce carbon intensity by 45% by 2030 vis-à-vis 2005 levels. The renewable energy capacity has increased from 40 GW in 2014 to 166 GW by 2022. The GoI has announced several progressive policies toward adoption of green hydrogen, with a goal to meet 10% of global hydrogen demand by 2030.
How India can bridge north-south divides?
As the G20 president, India’s actionables could be on some important issues such as Sharing insights from Indian policy reforms like the National Logistics Policy, the creation of the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC), and proposal for developing food corridors (especially between India and West Asia), like the millet corridor, etc, thus creating opportunities for collaboration with other countries. A brand-new G20 engagement group that was suggested under India’s presidency is called the Startup 20 Engagement Group. This might be a new step in the direction of global economic and policy collaboration on particular startup sector interests. India has the opportunity to become a leader in regulatory reforms during its G20 presidency by contributing to a global regulatory framework. India also needs to leverage its presidency to lead discussions detailing the insights from and scope of Indian global efforts like the Green Grids initiative. The G20 must offer political backing and commitment to an ongoing conversation about how to lessen trade turbulence during crises and propose rules that sustain stability in situations of dire need. India can lead the charge in enhancing supply chain preparedness and resilience in light of the current circumstances.
Out of the innumerable issues facing the developing world, India will likely focus on key concerns such as food and energy insecurity, the digital divide, climate change (particularly climate finance), and debt distress. Overall, India’s G20 presidency presents a unique opportunity to bring the Global South forward and promote greater global equity and inclusivity. By focusing on these key areas, India can help ensure that the interests and concerns of developing countries are adequately represented in global decision-making, and that the benefits of economic growth and development are shared more equitably around the world. Indeed, if India is able to follow through on these democratic and truly multilateral ideals India’s G-20 presidency would be a momentous celebration for all.
*President, India Water Foundation
