By Dr Arvind Kumar*
*President, India water Foundation, New Delhi
Recent years have witnessed growing public and policy preoccupation with potential climate impacts on water security in the wake of the worsening risk of global warming. In 1991, then–UN secretary general Boutros Boutros-Ghali pronounced that “the next war will be fought over water, not politics.” In 2001, Kofi Annan warned that “fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future.” And present UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon has argued that the ongoing Darfur crisis grew at least in part from desertification, ecological degradation, and a scarcity of resources, foremost among them water. Apart from this chorus of concern, many policy scholars have asserted that, as population growth and economic development raise pressures on demand and environmental pressures degrade supplies, resource scarcities could precipitate violent international conflicts, with shared rivers an especially dangerous flashpoint.
The growing apprehension that water and other resource conflicts, exacerbated by global warming, could undermine the international order has now become part of the public policy. The European Union explicitly invokes the danger that climate stresses could menace global security as a basis for European Community climate policies.
While evaluating the risk of prospective water wars against the historical evidence, a group of scholars rummaged through data sets covering 124 countries and 122 of the world’s 265 international river basins, and identified 1,831 interstate events between 1946 and 1999 that concerned water. It was observed that cooperation far outweighed confrontation, representing 67 percent of events. Of 507 incidents judged conflictual, 414 amounted to only rhetorical exchanges. In all, they found 37 instances of military or violent confrontation. In no case did disputes over water lead to formal declarations of war. On the contrary, riparians in transboundary basins signed fully 157 international freshwater treaties over the same period.
Undoubtedly, the study by Wolf et al. is widely cited to deflate anxious claims that strains on water supplies will ignite future water wars and to highlight the predominantly collaborative character of interstate hydropolitics, yet, there are several reasons to fear that previous levels of international cooperation will not necessarily continue to prevail.
Broadly speaking, examples of cooperation considerably outnumber cases of conflict, but this accounting may not accurately reflect the dynamic degree of tension over water resources that riparians experience. That no state formally declared war on another over water carries almost no probative value. According to broad estimates, water issues contributed to “only” 37 violent incidents —including 21 examples of “Extensive war acts causing deaths, dislocation, or high strategic cost”—to be less than reassuring. If this is already so, one may well wonder, what will happen if climate change aggravates existing strains on shared water supplies?
Here, some other expeditions into the hydropolitical archives offer more troubling evidence. While examining every transboundary river in every one of the world’s international river basins from 1880 to 2001, Gleditsch et al. determined that, even after accounting for other factors that trigger interstate conflict, countries that share a river face a higher probability of engaging in fatal military disputes. Though not conclusive, their results also suggested that competition stemming from water scarcity may help explain this propensity. Similarly, Hensel and Brochmann in their examination of the management of every shared river in different parts of the globe from 1900 to 2001, have indicated that growing water demands and greater scarcity both make explicit disagreements over rivers more likely and heighten the risk that these claims will become militarized.
There are ample indications to show that global warming is already exerting on the social stresses. During the last three decades, weather-related hydrometeorological disasters of all kinds—floods, droughts, windstorms, hurricanes, etc.—have quadrupled, surging from 428 in 1974–78, to 817 in 1984–88, to 1,707 in 1999–2003.
Alleviation of adverse impacts on the global warming can be addressed to some extent by planting more trees and through water conservation, keeping water resources free from pollution, rainwater harvesting and other related measures. Armed Forces, which are mostly posted in border areas that are either hilly areas, or jungles or desert can play crucial role in training and educating the local population about the worth of preservation of trees, planting more trees, water conservation, keeping natural water resources free from pollution, rainwater harvesting etc.
Armed Forces occupy a glorious place in our hearts and everyday thinking. The Forces are not only a war machine for the defence of the nation, but have won accolades for their humanitarian role during peace times as and when the nation is confronted with natural calamities like floods, avalanches, cyclones etc. We always find our Jawans by our side as and when a crisis visits us.
As most of us are aware that India is faced with acute shortage of drinking water in the wake of fast depletion of underground water resources, shrinking glaciers in the Himalayan ranges and in the Tibetan Plateau and rapid pace of urbanization coupled with the growing population which will place more demands on water. So there is a need for water security, like the national security. Our Armed Forces are capable of safeguarding the territorial integrity of the nation and we are proud of their capabilities. Owing to their reach to the coastal and hilly border areas, the Forces can play crucial role in ensuring water security in peace times.
Ever since the advent of civilization, there has been a constant struggle for attaining basic water security, harnessing the productive potential of water and limiting its destructive impacts. Nevertheless, human history has been witness to the fact that water has also been a source of dispute and even conflict between uses and between users at both local and larger scales. Scarcity of water relative to demand entails the potential of giving rise to lurking fears of trans-boundary waters becoming a source of conflict, thereby constraining growth. Nonetheless, there is also emerging experience of cooperation on trans-boundary waters, supporting regional integration as a driver of growth.
There is a growing concern for water security. Undoubtedly, water in its natural, unmanaged state possesses the unique destructive quality. Viewed in a broad spectrum, ‘water security’ can be defined as the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for production, livelihoods and health, coupled with an acceptable level of risk to society of unpredictable water-related impacts.
Water security is emerging as a paradigm for cumulative impacts assessment and watershed management and is gaining world-wide interest. Water security is percieved as: “sustainable access on a watershed basis to adequate quantities of water, of acceptable quality, for human and environmental uses”. Another definition of water security is: “a multi-dimensional concept that recognizes that sufficient good quality water is needed for social, economic and cultural uses while, at the same time, adequate water is required to sustain and enhance important ecosystem functions.”
Water security involves protection of vulnerable water systems, protection against water related hazards such as floods and droughts, sustainable development of water resources and safeguarding access to water functions and services. It is primarily concerned with human interventions in water systems. These are aimed at the enhancement of the beneficial and sustainable use of water for various purposes such as water supply, irrigation, drainage, navigation, hydropower, environmental purposes and the protection against water related risks such as floods and droughts.
Interventions in water systems are necessary to meet the needs of society in the widest sense and in order to be able to face the challenges of all kinds of global changes like climate change, land use change, etc. Broadly speaking, the notion of water security entails surface and groundwater systems; river basins, coastal and estuarine water systems and ports and waterways. Besides, its other main aspects are:
• analysis and understanding of hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical and morphological processes and phenomena;
• planning and design of engineering interventions at regional/trans-boundary and local scales;
• management, operation and maintenance of water related infrastructure;
• environmental assessment and mitigation of impacts due to water use and interventions in water systems.
Embedded in the idea of ‘water security’ is the notion of a ‘minimum platform of water institutions and infrastructure.’ It is noteworthy that below this minimum platform, society and the economy are not resilient to the impacts of water shocks and/or unreliable water for production or livelihoods, and water is a significant obstacle to growth. The institutions, investments and management skills required for basic water security will differ across countries and across economic actors as a consequence of hydrology, the structure of the economy and risk aversion. International rivers can be significant potential helpful factors for managing and developing water to achieve growth and poverty alleviation.
Attainment of basic water security is closely linked to hydrological variability and extremes. This challenge is compounded by climate change, and everywhere it will require significant adaptation. Technical aspects relating to water engineering are looked after concerned government departments. However, the technical and engineering expertise of the Forces has also played commendable role in meeting water requirements of the local populace in Rajasthan desert, hilly areas and other places. Media reports speak volumes of creditable role of the Forces in ensuring supply of drinking water in the water-deficit areas.
Closely akin to water security is the notion of water diplomacy. India has water-related problems with Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China. There is a need of developing well-concerted water diplomacy for India. Many experts have opined that water is fast emerging as a bone of contention between and among the countries in the near future, and India is no exception to it. We, at India Water Foundation, have been emphasizing on engaging India’s immediate neighbours, particularly Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and Nepal, in water diplomacy. Recent months have witnessed positive response from Bangladesh in water cooperation.
Adherence to similar engagement in water sector is called for with China, Pakistan and Nepal. This will help in resolving water-related issues through peaceful negotiations and ensure constant supply of water to and from India. India’s Northern and North-eastern states are dependent on rivers originating from Tibet, the Autonomous Region of China. Apart from India, other countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are also dependent on Mekong River system originating from Tibet. Thus, India in cooperation with these countries can impress upon China the urgency for keeping these rivers’ downstream flow unhindered.
Armed Forces share a responbility in this regard to monitor the flow level of these rivers and in coordination with External Affairs Ministry can work as a watchdog. Some sort of mechanism has to be worked out for facilitating such coordination because for the time being such type of water diplomacy is out of the purview of the Armed Forces. But the time has come to involve the Forces into water monitoring in the border areas. There is a need of convergence between the Ministry of Defence, Ministry of External Affairs and Ministry of Water Resources to prepare training programmes for the Jawans in forestry and water management. The Jawans thus trained will help local population and this mutual interaction can be very useful for the nation.
