The Indian finance ministry’s reported move to expand the next annual Economic Survey to include an entire chapter on financing measures to mitigate climate change is praiseworthy. Striking a balance between economic development and environmental protection is a sine qua non. But the challenge is formidable given the new uncertainties thrown up by climate change. This is especially so since the climate risks associated with global warming are expected to be disproportionately large on developing economies. India with its long coastline, extensive rain-fed agriculture and important glacier-fed rivers is vulnerable.
The earth’s climate has been undergoing transformation as a result of natural forces. However, recent decades have been witnessing growing concerns about the impact of climate change that has been caused by human activities during the process of industrialisation and economic development. A particular concern has emerged around global warming due to the emission of greehouse gases, and attempts are being made both at national and international levels to reduce the level of emissions. However, carbon-reduction measures can be controversial, because of concerns that they result in adopting practices that are less amenable to economic development.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, only industrialised countries have committed themselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and submit annual reports on their measures. Developing countries- including India – are obliged to submit a ‘national communication’ report every six years to the UN climate body. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the pressure is on for national governments to hammer out a new international treaty at the UN Climate Change Conference. However, the recent COP-17 held December 2011 in Durban (South Africa) failed to reach such an agreement.
A major stumbling block to reaching an agreement is an increasingly rancorous debate over the extent to which large and rapidly developing economies, such as China and India, should sign up to limiting their future emissions alongside the already industrialised nations. At the same time, double standards adopted by the US and other industrialized countries are also blocking the final consensus.
On the one hand, India is threatened by climate change and is struggling to pull its millions of people out of poverty, on the other. What is the best way forward for India? Is slowing the pace of development a worthwhile trade-off to limit the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change, or will economic development afford Indian people the best protection against the ravages of nature – whether driven by man-made climate change or by other factors? Can the drive for economic development be balanced with strategies to limit and absorb the impact of man-made climate change, or are the two priorities essentially incompatible? And what are India’s responsibilities on the international stage – to stand up to the industrialised nations and insist this is a problem of their making or to demonstrate, as a nation of growing power and stature, its willingness to generate new solutions?
Economic development is frequently synonymous with industrial sprawl, natural resource depletion and poor working conditions for the masses. But it also means a lift in GDP, jobs and political clout.
Impact of Climate Change
A recent World Bank study estimates that from 2010 adapting to impacts of climate change will cost up to $100bn per year in the developing world. Assuming that temperatures will rise by 2 degrees Centigrade over the next 40 years, the study suggests that the major costs of adaptation would come from improving coastal protection and protecting transport links. Environmental campaigners opine that India’s large and growing population, its 7500-km long densely populated and low-lying coastline, and the extent to which its economy is closely tied to its natural resource base, make the country ‘considerably vulnerable’ to the impacts of climate change.
A trend sea level rise of about 1 cm per decade has been recorded along the Indian coast, and there are concerns that global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events such as cyclones. There has been some suggestion that global warming may influence monsoon dynamics. In a country where, it is noted, 60% of farmland depends on rains, a shift in the rainfall distribution due to climate change would have far-reaching implications for the population.
The World Health Organisation has focused on the adverse effects of climate change upon human health, and suggested that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be beneficial for health. If climate change precipitates extreme weather events, or makes rural areas impossible to inhabit or farm, there is a direct human cost, as ‘climate refugees’ or ‘environmental migrants’ move to urban areas, putting pressure on civic amenities.
It is, therefore, argued that it is in India’s direct interest to deal with climate change now: the problem is not something that only future generations will experience. Some critics, though, have pointed out that the scientific evidence for more extreme weather events as the climate warms is lacking and that, in any case, economic development provides the best hope of coping with the vagaries of nature. Others have warned of the dangers of decision making based on hypothetical worst-case-scenarios.
Economic Development Emission Divide
While achieving “Development”, remains as a major challenge of the Developing Countries; most of them are not in a position to ensure basic human need such as food, shelter, clothing and minimum “standard of living” to all of their citizens. Getting rid from Poverty, Employment, Literacy, lack of basic access to primary Health Care and Education, Free from Malnutrition, Stabilizing Population, Reduction in Infant Mortality Rate, ensuring Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation: still remains far-off for the more than the Ninety per cent population of the world today.
On the other hand, due to higher Green House Gas emissions, earth is experiencing a higher rise in temperature (40 Centigrade in 100 years), which drastically influencing the changes in the weather patterns, resulting in melting the Ice-caps, causing flash floods, droughts, cyclones, hurricanes, abnormal increase or decrease in rainfall, arising water scarcity, desertification, change in crop-yield, sea level rise or coastal flooding, causing victor-born diseases, and many unexpected natural disasters including the changes in major river systems and even adversely affecting Bio-diversity. As a priority, Development certainly comes first. Because Climate Change Policy, can not solve the problems and need of a developmental prospects of a country and at the same time initiatives for Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Change, can also not be ignored; since this is closely linked to the process of development at each stage.
The climate of the future is going to be different form the climate of the past; hence from our experience and traditional knowledge, built over the years, we should able to adopt appropriate Climate Change Policies and subsequently implement the Mitigation Strategies; otherwise the poorest of the poor would suffer the most, since they are the ones, most vulnerable to climate change process. The most of the Developing Countries, unfortunately do not have sufficient either financial resources or technological know-how to support their minimum developmental programmes and in such a situation, Adaptation and implementing Mitigation Policy would certainly be an additional burden for them. In fact, Capacity Building assumes prime importance in such a context for the Developing World.
India has the world’s second largest population and fourth largest economy, with a per capita annual GDP of $ 2.4. While our economy has been among the fastest growing in the world in the last two decades, the major part of this growth is due to the service sectors, including information
technology, bio-technology, and media and entertainment. The nation aims to reduce the poverty rate to 15 per cent, provide full employment, ensure food, energy and economic security and double per capita income – all by 2012. In order to achieve these goals, India has developed an open, market-based economy.
India’s carbon emissions per capita, is the lowest in the world, averaging only one-quarter of the global average and one-twentieth the U.S. rate. While India places a higher priority on development needs, policies driven by economic and environmental challenge have reduced growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The greatest challenge has been economic liberalization and restructuring to improve living standards of the people. Pressure from citizen activists to reduce air pollution has also led to sufficient legal interventions in mandating strong clean air measures that affect energy systems. India ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002.
First, our per capita Green House Gas emissions are only a fraction of the world average, and an order of magnitude below that of many developed countries. This situation will not change for several decades to come. We do believe that the ethos of democracy can support equal per capita rights to global environmental resources.
In Five-year Planning process, India stated placing “ Environment Protection “, due importance right from it’s fifth Five-year Plan. The Ninth Plan (1997-2002) recognizes the synergies among environment, health, and development, and identifies as one of its core objectives, as the need for ensuring environmental sustainability of the development process through social mobilization and participation of people at all levels (Planning Commission 1997).
The Approach Paper to the India’s Tenth Five-year Plan (2002-2007) links economic development and poverty with environmental degradation. As the poor are dependent on nature for their livelihoods, they are highly vulnerable to natural calamities, environmental degradation, and ecological disasters. Any economic development, which destroys the environment, may aggravate problems of poverty, unemployment, and disease.
Moreover, the Approach Paper also emphasized that India would target a high rate of economic growth (8% GDP), simultaneously striving for enhancement of human will being. This included adequate levels of consumption of food and other consumer goods, access to basic social services (education, health, drinking water, and basic sanitation), expansion of economic and social opportunities for all individuals and groups, reduction of disparities, and greater participation in decision-making. This is the key challenge for the Indian economy at the start of the new millennium.
The Tenth Plan was a period of extensive review of environmental processes and law. The first National Environment Policy was put into place in May 2006. Also, the re-engineering of the environmental clearance process and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Notification and review of the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification were undertaken to improve the quality of environmental governance. The emphasis in the Eleventh Plan has been to build on this experience by integrating environment considerations into policymaking in all sectors of the economy—infrastructure, transport, water supply, sanitation, industry, agriculture, and anti-poverty programmes. It also calls for strengthening the oversight and regulatory framework for environment management so that development decisions do not impinge adversely on sustainability.
Conclusion
More recently there have been signs of a shift in the Indian government’s stance and suggestions that India will adopt a more conciliatory attitude than some other developing nations at COPs. However, is there a danger that India will take the emission-reducing agenda too far, and undermine its opportunities to become a richer, more developed country that will be better placed to absorb the impact of global warming?
Available assessment indicates diverse adaptation strategies are called for to tackle all contingencies. A rise in mean temperature can affect cropping patterns and agriculture productivity. It raises sea levels, which push up coastal water salinity and increase frequencies of storm and water born diseases. Frequent flooding has implications on infrastructure like dams, bridges, roads and rails. Overall water availability is expected to change substantially across regions and even reduce forest cover. Working out a viable financial framework to cut emissions and fund climate mitigation changes strategies requires a healthy dialogue between stakeholders.
An important first step would be remove the misconception about an inevitable trade-off between climate change mitigation and development and forge more effective strategies. Innovative policies for generating renewable energy and water conservation can make climate change mitigation efforts more affordable, minimize the burden on the state exchequer and boost employment and overall growth. Emphasis should on maintaining equilibrium between development and climate change. Maintenance of one at the expense of the other could be disastrous.
By Dr. Arvind Kumar President India Water Foundation
