Dr. Arvind Kumar*
Undeniably, the formation of I2 U2 with India joining it along with Israel, the UAE and the US is a welcome development and the location of two ambitious projects on food security and energy security in India is also a welcome move; nevertheless, with the exception of India, other leading members of this new quartet have political agenda against Iran whereas India cannot position itself in the new grouping in as an anti-Tehran position. Therefore, India needs to proceed very cautiously.
The formation of any new regional grouping in international politics raises both speculations and apprehensions about its probable outcomes, especially in the wake of the member countries forming part of this new grouping. And this analogy suitably applies to the formation of Israel, India, the United States and the United Arab Emirate (UAE) grouping which is christened as I2 U2, and its first virtual meeting convened on 14 July this year and the joint statement issued thereafter have raised optimism for the constituents member states and has also left some observers guessing about its future prospects. This new grouping is also being referred to as the “New Quad” or the “West Asian Quad” in regional as well as international media.
This new grouping is evidently an outcome of the Abraham Accords of August 2020. Broadly speaking, Abraham Accords are a joint statement between the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States, reached on 13 August 2020, and subsequently, this nomenclature has been used to collectively refer to agreements between Israel and the UAE – Israel-UAE normalisation agreement, the Bahrain-Israel normalisation agreement – etc. And this new grouping of I2 U2 is also a part of these Abraham Accords, which, according to some observes, are designed to bring Israel and the UAE on the same platform, in order to widen the scope of I2 U2, apart from Israel and the UAE, the US and India have been invited to be part of this new grouping.
Virtual Summit
On 14 July, during the US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel, the heads of the Government of India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and US President Joe Biden took part in this summit virtually.
The joint statement issued after the summit highlighted how the new grouping taps into the entrepreneurial spirit of the four member countries to embark upon joint investments and initiatives in the realms of water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security. Underscoring the significance of private sector investment to modernise infrastructure, advance low carbon development pathways for industries and improvement of public health and access to vaccines, the joint statement also emphasised the role of private investments in ensuring the wider goal of food and energy security.
While reiterating its support for the Abraham Accords, under which a number of Arab countries normalised their relations with Israel, the statement said that the deal has paved way for new economic opportunities as well as new groupings, such as the Negev Forum that has brought together the US, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, and the UAE. However, the salient feature of this joint statement was the emphasis on food security and clean energy.
India’s Prime Minister Modi started his opening statement by celebrating the cooperative model of the summit, which he said brought together strategic partners having a common perspective and common interests. While welcoming the new grouping’s positive agenda as well as its progressive and pragmatic vision to launch joint projects in water, energy, transport, space, health, and food security, PM Modi expressed the hope that the I2 U2 would mobilise “the mutual strength of the countries, capital, expertise, and markets, and contribute significantly to the global economy, energy security, food security, and economic growth amid a period of increasing global uncertainties.”
The food security project, as contemplated in the Joint Statement, entails an investment of $2 billion by the UAE’s sovereign fund to develop a network of integrated food parks across the states of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh in India. While the companies from the US and Israel will offer innovative solutions, the programme will comprise climate-smart technologies that help minimise food wastage, conserve fresh water, and use renewable energy. India will be providing land for this project that will be driven by private sector companies having expertise in this sector.
Israel is likely to provide advanced hydroponics technology that entails the potential of deployment with an initial focus on the cultivation of bananas, potatoes, rice, spices and onion. Some experts opine that it is important that the proposed project does not stop with growing more food, and probably it also entails the likelihood of imparting a new dimension to the India-UAE Food Corridor Project that has been on the negotiating table between India and the UAE for many years and had only started taking a semblance of shape in the wake of signing an MoU in February this year between APEDA from India and the DP World and Al Dahra from the UAE. According to some experts, the proposed Food Corridor Project, when completed, is likely to play a significant role in ensuring food security not only in the Arab Gulf countries but in South Asia as well.
The emphasis of the Joint Statement on energy security entails the clean energy project embracing a hybrid renewable energy facility that brings together wind and solar energy with advanced battery storage technology. In terms of the feasibility study undertaken by the US Trade Development Authority, the proposed project would be undertaken in Dwarka (Gujarat), with an investment of $330 million with the capacity of generating 200 MW of wind and 100 MW of solar energy, with accompanying battery storage of 100 to 500 MW capacity. With companies from the UAE coming on board to make available critical capital and technology, and the participation of companies from the US and Israel as providers of technology and other critical wherewithal, the possibility of India emerging as a global hub for alternate supply chains in the renewable energy sector cannot be ruled out, and such an eventuality becoming a reality could reduce the prevailing dependence on China. According to media reports, the objective of Israel and the US is to help India reach its goal of achieving 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.
Geopolitical Perspective
Many Middle East experts are of the view that floating of the Abraham Accords entails three objectives of getting Israel’s acceptance by as many as Arab and Arab Gulf countries thereby strengthening alliances to stem the tide of Iranian influence in the Arab region and keeping the Middle East within the American sphere of influence to ward off the region from falling prey to the Chinese influence. And the latest in the Abraham Accords – the I2 U2 – is also seen as designed to fulfil those three objectives. However, India’s inclusion in this quartet is a surprising element because India already shares strategic and friendly relations with the other three members of this quartet and India has cordial and friendly relations with Iran as well.
Over the years, India has built strong relations with Israel, the UAE and the US through meticulous diplomacy and shares political, economic strategic and people-to-people level relations with these countries. At a time when the Middle East is in the midst of reconfiguring traditional alliances, and there is a growing number of countries having accorded recognition to Israel for the first time, it affords a golden opportunity for India to win a seat for itself at every table. Undoubtedly, Washington and New Delhi would like the I2 U2 to counter China’s expanding influence in the Middle East; nevertheless, geopolitical and geo-economic realities under the prevailing circumstances are different.
Both the UAE and Israel have very good relations with China. Beijing is the biggest trading partner of the UAE and a major buyer of its oil. Besides, China has been the biggest source of imports for Israel in 2021 and former Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu had once described Israel’s ties with China as a “marriage made in heaven.” So, there is the least possibility of Israel and the UAE rethinking their respective relationships with China in the immediate future. However, both Israel and the UAE would expect the new grouping to garner broader support against Iran. The I2 U2 grouping presents a different situation compared to the Indo-Pacific where each member of the Quad – India, the US, Australia and Japan –perceive China as a threat and expects to collectively offer the region an alternative power centre to China. However, keeping in view its economic and energy relations with Iran, India cannot be expected to position itself in the I2 U2 in an anti-Iran position, and India and Iran have recently resumed long-dormant efforts to operationalise a transit corridor that connects up with Russia.
Way Forward Undoubtedly, some experts hail India’s diplomacy for being remarkably nimble in exploring new opportunities and grasping them with both hands, especially in the context of I2 U2 which has offered the location of two ambitious projects – food security and energy security – within India. Nevertheless, while cautioning that India should not be overwhelmed by the offer of two ambitious projects having been located in India, one critic has warned: “We need to be careful in evaluating the I2 U2 grouping. It could end up as an alphabet soup of alignments and partnerships – BRICS, SCO, Quad, ARF, GCC, OPEC, RIC, APEC, and so on – which wax and wane over the years. Some of them are good for a summit, striking a headline or two, others have dragged on as parts of the diplomatic ecosystems that have not really delivered anything. How India will square the Iranian circle with its Abrahamic allies and the US is not clear. But New Delhi needs to this one through carefully.”
*President, India Water Foundation
