The Tibetan Plateau (TP), encompassing an area of about 2.5 million square kilometers, is the largest and highest region on Earth. Stretching for almost 3,000 kilometers from west to east and 1,500 kilometers from south to north, the TP ringed by high mountains – the Himalayas to the south, the Karakorum in the west and the Kunlun across the north (Norbu, 2011). Dominating the geography of Asia (Miller, 2009), the TP contains more than 45,000 glaciers.
The Tibetan Plateau encompasses the Hindu Kush Himalayan Ice Sheet, considered as the largest ice mass outside the two poles, and glacial runoff from this region feeds the largest rivers in Asia, including Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Ganges and Indus rivers. These rivers flow into India, Bangladesh, China, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Burma and Vietnam. For China alone, 30 percent of its fresh water supply is met from the rivers flowing from Tibet. Owing to its significant role in feeding the major river systems in South Asia, TP is often described as the “Water Tower of Asia” (Viviroli et al., 2007; Immerzeel et al., 2010).
For many centuries, the TP has met the basic necessities to sustain life and flourish human civilizations thereby bringing life and joy to millions of people beyond its vast border: From the arid plains of Pakistan and India to the rice paddies of southern Vietnam, from the Cambodia to the North China plain. However, climatic vagaries due to climate-induced, water-induced calamities and human interventions have resulted in the melting of glaciers, flash floods, avalanches, droughts etc in this part of the globe have negatively affected ecological equilibrium, water supply, agriculture, flora and fauna and livelihoods of the people.
Glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau provide a key source of water in the summer months; as much as 70 percent of the summer flow in the Ganges and 30–50 percent of the flow in other major rivers. Mekong River, originating from TP, which flows through Yunnan Province in China and then through Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and finally Vietnam, is the bloodline for the Mekong-region countries directly supporting approximately 70 million people along its basin from fisherman to farmers.
Probability of water resources becoming vulnerable assume added dimensions in the TP region owing to the vital role of snow and ice in the hydrology of the region (Barnett et al., 2005). Delay in the timing of runoff is facilitated by seasonal storage of water in snow and ice (Kaser et al., 2010; Immerzeel et al., 2010; Siderius et al., 2013; Schaner et al., 2012). Resultantly, the retreat and loss of glaciers can significantly impact the quantity and timing of water availability.
Impact of Climate Change
The 2014 Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted that the Himalayan glaciers could lose between a third and half of their mass by 2100. Having revised previous predictions, which suggested total glacial melt in the Himalayas by 2035, the 2014 IPCC report still recognized the problem as a high priority issue. According to this IPCC report, an average surface temperature increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius from 2006, would result in glacial shrinkage of up to 45 per cent by 2100; with an increase of 3.7 degrees, the reduction would be closer to 68 per cent (IPCC, 2014).
It has also become discernible from other studies that in the last three to four decades, warming in the Himalayas has been more than the average of 0.75 per cent over the last century. Some have confirmed that it is warming five to six times faster than the global average (Levacher, 2014).
The monsoon pattern in Asia in general and the Tibetan Plateau region in particular, is severely affected by the ongoing process of climate change. There have been reports of the monsoon being erratic in four out of every 10 years. In 2012, specialists found a 4.5 per cent decline in monsoonal rain in the three decades to 2009. The simulations from the World Climate Research Programme’s Third Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project predict that climate change will result in increased monsoonal precipitation over South Asia, East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean. Increased precipitation, along with increased glacial melting, could potentially have devastating consequences (Levacher, 2014).
There have also been reports about steadily warming of climate in the TP region. According to Qinghai Meteorological Authority, from 1961 to 2012, the temperature here increased 1.9 degrees Celsius, and continues to rise. The resultant outcome of the increased temperatures has been deteriorating environmental conditions including rising snow lines and more extreme weather, affecting not only the water runoff, but also the lives of more than one million of the herders and villagers in Tibetan Plateau (Feng, 2016).
Burgeoning population in lower riparian areas of the Tibetan Plateau also entails the likelihood of increasing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. The Indus, originating in the Tibetan Plateau, carries melt water from the glaciated Karakoram and Jammu–Kashmir region to a highly populated region, where its flow component arising from glacial discharge is highly uncertain and estimates vary from 40% for the upper Indus (Immerzeel et al., 2010) to as low as 2% in one of the glaciated sub-catchments (Jeelani et al., 2012). However, seasonally, there is potentially a very large population reliant on glacier discharge (Schaner et al., 2012).
Bulk of Asia’s population is dependent on water from the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers (Moors et al., 2011; Immerzeel et al., 2010). The fact that the influence of glacier discharge decreases with distance downstream and river flow becomes more influenced by precipitation variability (Kaser et al., 2010), there is correspondingly a need to better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on regional water resources.
Water is not only the key to climate change; it is also the key to sustainable development. Recent years have witnessed emergence of water as a key issue entailing the potential of impacting mutually beneficial cooperation or deleterious interstate competition. Strategic location of TP, which is under China’s control, influences the direction of water. South Asia and Mekong Basin regions, which are already water-deficient regions, any further control of water supply by the upper riparian is likely to adversely impact lower riparian countries.
The rapid proliferation of irrigated farming, water-intensive industries and widespread use of high water-consuming comforts like washing machines and dishwashers etc., have contributed to the growing need for water in this region. The adverse impact of climate change and environmental degradation in the form of shrinking forests and swamps, which foster a cycle of chronic flooding and droughts through the depletion of nature’s water storage and absorption cover has added to water woes.
The 10 major watersheds formed by the Himalayas and Tibetan highlands spread out river waters far and wide. However, human intervention through rapid industrialization and infrastructure development now threatens the ecological viability of river systems tied to South and Southeast Asia. Exploitation of natural and mineral resources of TP without caring for its adverse impact on ecological balance has made the region extremely vulnerable to the vagaries of climate change. In this scenario, experts opine that the future of Tibet’s water reserves is tied to ecological conservation.
Adverse impact of the vagaries of climate change in terms of the melting of glaciers means more flooding in the short-term and more droughts in the long-term, both inside China as well as in the lower riparian countries and this fact is attested to by the Chinese scientist Liu Shiyin: “The shrinking of glaciers has picked up speed in the past decades. While there might be more water in the rivers at present because of the increased melting, in the long run, the glacier water will decrease, and droughts will follow” (Shiyin, 2007). Attention towards the adverse effects of climate change in Tibetan Plateau is also drawn by Dr Katherine Morton, a UK-based specialist in climate change and regional security in Tibet:
Glacial melt has dramatic adverse effects on biodiversity, people and livelihoods with long-term implications for water, food and energy security. It can also trigger a higher incidence of natural disasters–landslides, flooding and glacial lake outbursts–that can, in turn, lead to internal displacement and the destruction of critical infrastructure. Over the longer term, higher temperatures will increase flooding in the rainy season and reduce water in the dry season, thus affecting food production in the provinces downstream, as well as the livelihoods of over 1 billion people in China, India, Nepal and Bangladesh. Eventually water shortages will occur on a massive scale. The consequences for a region that is already highly prone to both floods and drought are dire. We are, in effect, facing a humanitarian catastrophe in the world’s most populous region (Morton, 2009).
Ecological equilibrium in Tibetan Plateau is confronted with a host of serious environmental challenges, which are impacting the quantity and quality of Tibet’s freshwater reserves, most of them caused by industrial activities. Deforestation has led to large-scale erosion and siltation. Mining, manufacturing, and other human activities are producing record levels of air and water pollution in Tibet. Together, these factors portend future water scarcity that could add to the region’s volatility.
The region’s warming climate is causing glaciers to recede at a rate faster than anywhere else in the world. These developments have made Tibet’s water resources becoming an increasingly crucial politico-strategic and cultural element. More than a quarter of China’s land is classified as desert. It is one of the planet’s most arid regions. Chinese rivers are either too polluted or too filled with silt to provide all of China’s population with adequate supplies of freshwater.
China is intent upon exploiting Tibet’s water resources without caring for its adverse impact on the lower riparian countries. China is engaged in building dams for hydropower and spending billions of dollars to build a system of canals to tap water from the snowmelt and glaciers and transport it hundreds of miles north and east to the country’s farm and industrial regions.
Construction of Dams
Construction of dams on major rivers on the upper riparian side has adversely impacted the lower riparian countries in the Mekong Basin, Brahmaputra Basin and Ganga Basin. The construction of dams on the Chinese portion of the Mekong River has evoked resentment among the people of the Mekong Basin countries. The problem of mounting water deficit in South Asia and Mekong Basin is further compounded by reported plans to build dams or redirect the southward flow of river waters from the Tibetan plateau. The ambitious plans by the Upper Riparian country include production of hydropower, channeling waters for irrigation and other purposes etc., and it is also reportedly working on massive inter-basin and inter-river water-transfer projects.
China is engaged in building dams upstream on the Mekong, to the consternation of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Some of Chinese projects in west-central Tibet can adversely affect river-water flows into India. However, China is maintaining studied silence on these projects.
In the wake of flash floods in India’s northern Himachal Pradesh state, however, China agreed in 2005 to supply New Delhi data on any abnormal rise or fall in the upstream level of the Sutlej River, on which it has built a barrage. India is holding parleys with China to persuade it to share flood-control data during the monsoon season on two Brahmaputra tributaries, Lohit and Yarlongng Tsangpo, as it has done since 2002 on the Brahmaputra River, which it has dammed at several places upstream. However, there has been no encouraging response until now.
The dam-building frenzy of China could be easily ascertained from its record in the past five decades and as per data of the World Commission on Dams, China had only 22 large dams in 1949 and by 2000 the number had increased to 22,000 dams (Walker, 2013). According to a report published in South China Morning Post (SCMP) dated 23 January 2013, the state council of China had released an energy-sector blue print for 2011-2015 in which they had decided to construct at least 54 hydro-power stations with total capacity of 120 GW on the upper reaches of Yangtze, Mekong and Salween, with utter disregard to the geological risks, global biodiversity, resettlement and impacts on downstream communities. This plan also reportedly included the reopening of previously shelved damming projects on Salween River due to environmental concerns (SCMP, 2013).
China’s dam-building frenzy and its adverse impact on the lower riparian countries was aptly summed by Dr. Elizabeth Economy in her written Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on 26 January, 2012, as thus:
Several of Asia’s longest and most important rivers begin in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, and China is a central player in many of the controversies surrounding shared water resources in Central, South, and Southeast Asia. China develops plans for its upstream reserves that will have dramatic impacts on the lower reaches. China is one of only three countries, along with Burundi and Turkey, not to sign onto the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.
It rejects the idea of national integrity, which asserts that states have the right not to be adversely affected in their development potential by activities of the upstream riparian countries. (Economy, 2012)
In view of the global warming, the question arises as to how long the frozen Himalayan glaciers’ reservoir will last is in doubt. In attempting to solve its own water crisis, China could potentially create widespread water shortages among its neighbors. According to Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, “While the political issues swirling around Tibet and China are complex, there is no denying that water plays a role in China’s interest in the region. The water of Tibet may prove to be one of its most important resources in the long run–for China, and for much of southern Asia. Figuring out how to sustainably manage that water will be a key to reducing political conflicts and tensions in the region.”
Some recent studies undertaken in China acknowledge the changing condition of Tibet’s water supply. The Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, a unit of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, recently reported that the area and mass of the region’s glaciers had decreased 7 percent since the late 1960s. Some experts opine that undoubtedly, the Chinese scientists have reported about the melting phenomenon being widespread; nonetheless, it was not known how many of China’s 46,298 glaciers were affected (Schneider & Pope, 2008).
Alluding to strategic importance of Tibetan water resources for China, Geoff Dabelko opines that water is seen as a strategic asset for China wherever it occurs in China, “Because so much of the water for China and the region originates in Tibet, it adds an additional level of importance and political sensitivity and context that does not get the attention it deserves. Nearly two billion people are dependent on water originating on the Tibetan Plateau. By definition, that makes it high politics and critically important in a politically strategic sense” (Cited in ibid.).
Way Forward
Tibetan Plateau, along with other glaciers of Himalaya, is the water tower of Asia. It calls for more attention and close cooperation between China and the countries dependent on rivers originating from Tibet with regard to safeguard of water resources in Tibet and judicious use of water by the main stakeholders.
Much effort is needed on the ground in Tibet to restore wetlands, adapt farm and pastureland, and preserve forests before the impacts of climate change render it more difficult to save ecosystems. Through state and people working together, desertification may also be reversed. The fate of future developments and social security of the lower riparian countries relies on how well the ecological services are restored in and managed in Tibet.
In the aftermath of conclusion of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, it becomes essential for the lower riparian countries of eastern part of South Asia to forge a Mekong Commission like organization and thereafter both organizations should negotiate with China regarding sharing of water of rivers originating from Tibet. Merely raising a hue and cry against China is not going to serve the purpose because China is a major factor helpful in restoring ecological equilibrium in Tibet.
The Tibetan Plateau is a densely populated region, which is still experiencing rapid growth rates. With a large percentage of the region’s population already living in poverty and without access to freshwater, climate change has the potential to exacerbate water insecurity and other vulnerabilities across in the entire region.
A healthy and sustainable Tibetan Plateau will not only benefit the entire Asian Continent, but also it would help in promoting peace and harmony within the region. Apart from serving as a land bridge connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia, Tibetan Plateau is the raison d’être of the very survival of about 2 billion people who are dependent on the water resources emanating from there. The impact on Tibet’s landscape and its natural resources due to climate change and human intervention would threaten not only future water and food security of the region’s nations but also subdue their ambitious efforts of realizing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) as well as fulfilling the objectives of the recently concluded Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
References
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, 2005.
Economy, Dr. Elizabeth. (2012). Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 26, ‘China’s Global Quest for Resources and Implications for the United States’, available at: http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/1.26.12economy_testimony.pdf. Accessed on 26 April 2017.
Feng, Coco. (2016). ‘Climate Change Rears Its Head on the Tibetan Plateau’, huffingtonpost.com, 6 November. Available at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-groundtruth-project/climate-change-rears-its_b_8491232.html, accessed on 7 May 2017.
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385, 2010
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014), The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What’s in it for South Asia?-CDKN, available at: https://cdkn.org/wp-content/…/2014/…/CDKN-IPCC-Whats-in-it-for-South-Asia-AR5.pdf. Accessed on 23 April 2017.
Jeelani, G., Feddema, J. J., van der Veen, C. J., and Stearns, L.: Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12508, doi:10.1029/2011WR011590, 2012.
Kaser, G., Grosshauser, M., and Marzeion, B.: Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 20223–20227, 2010.
Levacher, Cécile. (2014). Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau Region: Glacial Melt and Future Water Security, 29 May, available at: http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/climate-change-in-the-tibetan-plateau-region-glacial-melt-and-future-water-security/. Accessed on 5 May 2017.
Miller, D.J. (2009). ‘Why Tibet Matters Now Part 1’, China Dialogue, available at: http://www.chinadialogue.net. Accessed on 15 April 2017.
Moors, E. J., Groot, A., Biemans, H., van Scheltinga, C. T., Siderius, C., Stoffel, M., Huggel, C., Wiltshire, A., Mathison, C., Ridley, J., Jacob, D., Kumar, P., Bhadwal, S., Gosain, A., and Collins, D. N.: Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India, Environmental Science & Policy, 14, 758–769, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.03.005, 2011.
Morton, Katherine. (2009). “An uncertain future on the Plateau”, April 28, available at: https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2961. Accessed on 22 April 2017.
Norbu, Tenzin. ‘Climate Change in Tibet and Asia, Tibet in the Aftermath of Devolution of Political Authority’, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), September 06-07, 2011. New Delhi, 2011, available at: www.tibet.net/wp-content/…/load.php?d=http%3A%2F%2Ftibet.pdf. Accessed on 12 April 2017.
Schaner, N., Voisin, N., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 034029, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034029, 2012.
Schneider, Keith and Pope, C. T. (2008). China, Tibet and Strategic Power of Water, circleof blue.org, May 8, available at: http://www.circleofblue.org/2008/world/china-tibet-and-the-strategic-power-of-water/ . Accessed on 13 May 2017.
SCMP (South China Morning Post (2013), ‘Ban lifted on controversial Nu River dam projects’, scmp.com, 23 January, available at: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1135463/ban-lifted-controversial-nu-river-dam-projects. Accessed on 27 April 2017.
Siderius, C., Biemans, H., Wiltshire, A., Rao, S., Franssen, W. H. P., Kumar, P., Gosain, A. K., van Vliet, M. T. H., and Collins, D. N.: Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges, Sci. Total Environ., 468, S93–S101, 2013.
Shiyin, Liu (2007). Quoted in ‘Glaciers melting at alarming speed’, China Daily, July 24, available at: www.chinadaily.com.cn. Accessed on 7 May 2017.
Viviroli, D., Durr. H. H., Messerli, B., Meybeck, M., and Weingartner, R.: Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and global significance, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07447, doi:10.1029/2006WR005653, 2007.
Walker, Beth. (2013). ‘China gives green-light to new era of mega-dams’, 1 February, available at: http://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/5678-China-gives-green-light-to-new-era-of-mega-dams/en. Accessed on 16 April 2017
