The possibility of an emerging trilateral alliance of India, Russia and China is gaining gradual credence in the wake of hype generated by the recent media reports in this regard and the increased frequency of meetings between the top leaders of these countries during 2007 as well as the ongoing process of hectic activities at the track two levels. Undoubtedly all the three countries have vehemently denied this there seems to be some element of truth behind it. If this finally happens, it will change the contours of the geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship of the Asia-Pacific countries. It may well give sleepless nights to the West and the United States of America in relation to their strategic and foreign policy with the Asia-Pacific.
The first India-China-Russia Trilateral Conference on strengthening economic cooperation held in the capital in the middle of December 2007 saw business leaders from the three countries and senior government officials engage in a unique effort to synergize their strengths in manufacturing, science and technology and services in a range of sectors. The Trilateral Conference was organized by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in partnership with the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. The conference discussed ways to improve cooperation amongst the three countries with sectoral focus on energy, infrastructure, biotechnology, chemicals & pharmaceuticals and nanotechnology. It was agreed that the conference should be a bi-annual event and the next meeting would be held in China in 2009.
Addressing the delegates, Nalin Surie, Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs, pointed out that the Trilateral India-China-Russia Conference was aimed at giving an economic, trade and business content to the ongoing process of strengthening the political relations amongst the three economic powerhouses of the region. Surie said, the groundwork had been laid for giving a fillip to economic cooperation between the three countries, and it was now imperative on the part of entrepreneurs and businessmen of India, China and Russia to drive the Track II initiative and bring it to fruition.
While asserting that the three-party process had already become important on the international agenda and a political factor to reckon with global developments, V. I. Trubnikov, the Russian Ambassador to India, pointed out: “We are united in our approaches to such core issues as strengthening the UN role, recognizing the realities of multi-polarity, democratizing international relations and resolving all major crises in the world by collective measures. Through these fundamental principles, we are sending a strong signal that there is no alternative to multilateral cooperation in the contemporary world, which is essential to respond effectively to the existing global threats and challenges.”
Bu Jian Guo, charge d’ affaires, at Chinese embassy, extended China’s commitment to placing the trilateral economic and business cooperation on a sustainable, high growth trajectory. She further stated that the Chinese, Indian and Russian economies were growing at a fast clip, faster than growth rates seen in other parts of the world, and called for sustained efforts to substantially raise the trilateral trade volume from the current level of US$ 39 billion.
The idea of strategic triangle took root with the end of the Cold War when the US assumed the role of global cop. The idea of the triangle raised much hope to build a multi-polar world that would enable the creation of a just and fair international economic and political order. More importantly, since the end of the Cold War gave primacy to economics than to politics, much enthusiasm arose about a common economic agenda. This augured well for the three great Asian powers, India, China and Russia which shared the common goal of economic reform and modernization. Being located in a single geopolitical space, they thought of a bonding to promote prosperity, security and stability in the region.
The idea of Russia, India and China trilateral cooperation was first mooted by Russian President Yeltsin in 1993 and Prime Minister Primakov in 1996 advocated this idea. The Russian Premier Yevgeny Primakov when first suggested a strategic triangle among Russia, India and China, stated that the union of Russia, China and India could be a viable opposition to American supremacy. This proposal fits in with Primakov’s hypothesis that though there is one super power that is trying to assert itself; Countries like Russia-India-China1 need a multi-polar world in order to get their national interest across and have autonomy of decision-making.
This idea got renewed attention in the post-9/11 world order. This time Islamic terrorism became an additional factor. China faces separatist forces in Xinjiang which it categorises as terrorism. India has its own concerns in Jammu and Kashmir. Russia fears terrorism in Chechnya.
Though the proponents of the strategic triangle attempted to reduce the anti-US flavour, the anti-US facet still holds ground in the formation of the strategic triangle. The geopolitical map of the world has changed by US position in Central Asia and Afghanistan. This has brought the US alarmingly to the doorsteps of Russia and China.4 This has led, China and India which initially showed a lukewarm attitude to Primakov’s proposal of a ‘strategic Moscow-Delhi-Beijing triangle’, to give renewed consideration in 2001. And, again in September 2004, when the Foreign Ministers of the three countries held a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Increased cooperation between Russia, India and China is almost indispensable to construct a multipolar world. Undoubtedly, there are some unresolved issues between these countries, they have moved towards a better understanding in recent years. All three shared concerns of American dominance and were disturbed by the Iraq war. They still back the primacy of the United Nations in solving crises and support the principle of nonintervention in internal affairs of sovereign states. In the long term it is the mutual confidence, which will help these three powers to play a larger role in global politics.
These three countries are bound to find this axis very useful in the future. With Russia concerned about Chechnya, China concerned about Muslim separatists in Xinjiang province and separatist attitude in Taiwan and North Korea, and India’s concern about militants in Kashmir, the Russia-India-China Axis formation can help to solve these issues to great extent. The Axis can be used for negotiating a better position for them vis-à-vis the US.
The prospects for the trilateral cooperation between Russia-India-China can better be understood in terms of present levels of India-China relations, Sino-Russian relations, Indo-Russian relations, tripartite cooperation and the US factor, and the prospects for developing Russia-China-India triangle.
India-China Relations
Since the December 1988 summit, India-China relations have entered a phase of confidence building. Both countries have increasingly begun to see each other and their relationship as crucial factors in their foreign policies. This in turn is also shaping the perception of other states towards these two states.
Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing in December 1988, followed by Chinese Premier Li Peng’s visit to India in 1991 and P.V. Narashimha Rao’s visit to China in 1993, President K.R. Narayanan’s visit to China in June 2000 and the visit of Chinese President Jyiang Zemin to India, President Hu Jinato’s visit to India in 2007 and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to Beijing, are events of great significance.
These visits brought in a large measure of political and military stability to a completely normalized pattern of India-China relationship. These visits also reflect how the two countries have put the past aside and are now constructing their relations for the mutual interest of both the nations.
The India-China bilateral trade set a new record with total trade touching USD 13.6 billion in 2004 with India enjoying a comfortable trade surplus of USD1.75 billion. The latest Chinese customs statistics indicate that India-China trade for 2004 increased 79% over that of 2003. Analysts argue that the total trade figure for 2004 was USD 3.6 billion more than that anticipated at the beginning of the year. It indicates the huge potential that exists between the two fastest-growing economies. During January-December 2004, Indian exports to China grew by 80.5% to register USD 7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India’s imports from China registered a 77.2% year-on-year growth to register USD 5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stood in India’s favour at USD 1.75 billion.
Stable relations between New Delhi and Beijing are very crucial to construct a peaceful post-Cold War Asia. China and India are the largest Asian states among the continents; Together India and China has over a third of the world’s population and therefore their future prosperity, security and progress can critically alter the fate of Asia. With cross border investments, trade and communication links spreading through the region and by creating an increasingly intricate structure of interdependence in which India and China are expected to play roles on which the future evolution of global capitalism would depend substantially is on the stability and economic growth of the two countries.
Sino-Russian Relations
Sino-Russian Relations have been improving steadily and have now taken a dramatic turn. In 1994, the two sides agreed on no first use of nuclear weapons against each other. The two Countries also detargeted the missiles directed against each other and an agreement to this effect was signed when Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Russia in September 1994.
Further, in April 1997 an accord on mutual reduction of forces was singed in Moscow by Russia & China. In December 1999, it was announced that the border dispute has been finally settled (though there are some residual issues, which will be settled in near future). Two leaders of Russia and China in Moscow signed the China-Russia good neighbourly treaty of friendship and cooperation in July 2001. Economic Cooperation between the two countries is also undergoing basic changes. In 1999, the trade volume between the both countries was $ 5.72 billion up 4.4 per cent from that in 1998. The trade volume of the first four months of 2001 was $ 2.5 billion, up 20.1 per cent from the same period of 2000. Russian imports from China have increased by 70 per cent, helping to balance bilateral trade. In 2000, China ranked the sixth among Russian trade partners.
There is a convergence of views between the two countries for protecting their common turf. This is amply reflected in the 20-year treaty of friendship signed in Moscow by Chinese President’s at the end of his visit to Russia in 2001. For Moscow, Beijing has also emerged as a major arms destination. More than 60 percent of Russian military exports go to China. In monetary terms, it is equal to $ 2 billion. China has purchased from Russia 50 Su-27 fighter jets, four Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines and two Sovremenny-class destroyers armed with deadly sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles.
Over the past decade, the two nations have made significant progress towards building a relationship of strategic cooperation. This is based on the principle of building a cooperative bilateral relationship while maintaining an independent foreign policy. However, Russia, China have set up multilateral forum that is not dominated by the US such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which discusses regional security and economic cooperation. China and Russia also have joint working group on terrorism and have agreed to exchange intelligence on these sensitive issues.
Indo-Russian Relations
The first couple of years of India’s relations with post-Soviet Russia were marked by a good deal of uncertainty, inconsistency and lack of clarity. India did take early steps, though without making any significant headway. The two-track approach that India adopted was on the one hand aimed at resurrecting the vital elements of its economic and military relations with Russia and on the other searching out alternatives in the West. On both these counts, however, India’s efforts were rewarded to a limited extent.
India’s difficulties were compounded both by the magnitude of its dependence on Russia and the political-economic uncertainty faced by the latter. It meant that it often had to ‘wait and see’ what Russian would do and how this would effect the relationship of the two countries. However, Russia seems to have shredded its initial hesitation, inconsistency and unclarity. The contours of new Russian foreign policy have become clearer. It is now giving all the indications of its ability and intentions of redefining its foreign policy goals, priorities and international role.
With India the objectives and character of its relations are being defined with a measure of clarity. The national goals of two countries are being looked upon in the light of new international realities. The two countries have once again begun to rediscover the mutual importance but with a qualitative difference, which commensurate with the realities of the post cold war era.
Indo-Russian cooperation in the area of defence supplies is gaining momentum. Indo-Russian defence supplies are in the range of 70 per cent of total defence imports of India. Agreements on scientific collaboration between India-Russia in the area of biotechnology have begun a new phase. Agreements have been signed for the Mig 29 K fighter, Kamov 31 helicopters, T-90S tanks and other defence equipment. Nearly $ 3 billion defence contracts have been finalized.
Indian Navy has acquired two submarines and three frigates from Russia, which costs around $ 300 million each. The Navy is also acquiring three Krivak-class frigates or project 1135.6 from Russia. There are some indicators, which shows that Indo-Russian cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear technology, related particularly to nuclear energy have already taken concrete shape. In the oil and gas sector, Gas Authority of India Ltd. and Russia’s Gazprom has signed a contract in the field of oil exploration.41 Indo-Russian politico-strategic defence cooperation is an important element of strategic partnership between the two countries.
In December 2002, India and Russia reaffirmed a long-standing friendship through the adoption of the Delhi Declaration. Since both the countries are struggling to define their relations with other major players on the global stage, in a situation where the rules of international politics are in a state of flux and where the term of the economic interaction between nations are being reset, this specific encounter between the Indian and Russian leaderships was of significance for the affirmation of continuity and mutual reassurance that it symbolized. What has substance to it is the reinforcement of the faith. There is a real convergence of perspectives on issues as wide-ranging as the phenomenon of terrorism, ensuring the security of nuclear weapons stockpiles in a world facing a new assortment of threats and challenges, the conservation and promotion of multi-polarity in global politics.
Between Vladimir Putin’s first visit to India as president of Russian Federation in October 2000 and his second visit in December 2002, and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to Moscow, there has emerged mutual desire for laying down a solid framework for India-Russia relations. This is a framework of another special relationship of “Strategic Partnership”, expanding cooperation and multiplying contacts in various fields, some of them of critical importance to India-Russia both.
The US Factor
United States is one of the major factors in the formation of Russia-India-China ‘axis.’ The tragic events of 9/11 triggered the complications and dramatic changes in the whole plethora of international relations. The post-9/11 world scenario witnessed an intense need to consider the economic aspects of the international security, to formulate the new role of US and these states national interests, to struggle against the international terrorism. Russia-India-China have signaled to the US that its unilateralism is breeding serious concern among big international players. These are clear manifestation of new trends in Russia-India-China tripartite cooperation vis-à-vis the US. Nevertheless, all three countries attach importance to their respective relations with US. These three countries are opposed to the US hegemony and stress the need for enhanced cooperation with each other to ensure a multi-polar world and a new international political and economic order.
The growing US military and diplomatic influence in Central and South Asia is also not in Beijing’s, New Delhi’s and Moscow’s interests. US President George Bush clubbed the three powers together when he said that America was working with Russia and China and India, in ways that they have never done before, to achieve peace and prosperity. Bush also said that in the present moment of opportunity, a common danger is erasing old rivalries. This trilateral axis has insisted Washington to reconsider its policy of ‘unilateralism’ thereby gradually paving way for multipolarity, for which the Beijing-Moscow-New Delhi alliance has been striving hard.
During the second week of February 2007, foreign ministers of Russia, China and India met in Delhi to discuss ways to build a more democratic ‘multipolar world.’ It was the second such meeting in the past two years and came after an unprecedented meeting between their respective leaders, Manmohan Singh, Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin, during the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg in July 2006.
A joint communiqué, issued in New Delhi after the meeting, stated that theirs was not an alliance against the United States. It was, “on the contrary, intended to promote international harmony and understanding.” Their formal agenda covered issues ranging from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East and North Korea to energy security, nuclear non-proliferation and trade. The subtext, however, was clear: how to use their growing economic and political muscle to prevent Washington from tackling such issues alone.
According to Vinod C. Khanna, of the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi, “In the long term, they feel that the whole structure of international relations has to shift in their direction. What has happened is that quite independently they’ve reacted very similarly to recent international events.” However, diplomatic circles in New Delhi felt that it was premature to talk of a strategic axis between the world’s largest and two most populous nations because they still have more in common with the West than with each other.
Observers feel that Russia appears keener than China or India to challenge American hegemony. But there has been a convergence of interests as each is struggling to make the transition from a command economy to free markets. Since 2003 they have found further common ground in opposing the US-led invasion of Iraq.
A meeting in northern China of the foreign countries of India, China and Russia during the last week of October 2007 ended with a joint communiqué which emphasized that they would continue to promote democratization of international relations and evolution of a more just and rational international order. It further states that three-way ties would be ‘beneficial to the process of global multi-polarity’ – an indirect reference to the post-Cold War ‘unipolar’ system. A familiar refrain, also insisted that their trilateral cooperation was not intended to target “any other country.”
Among other things, Russia and China strongly oppose U.S. ballistic missile defense initiatives, an issue that came up at a press conference after the three-way meeting.
The Pentagon argues for the need to provide protection against potential missile attack from terrorists or rogue states like Iran and North Korea, but Russia and China suspect that anti-missile shields would undermine their missile-based nuclear deterrents.
Moscow’s objections to plans to deploy an Iran-focused BMD shield in Central Europe are at the heart of current tensions in U.S.-Russia relations. Lavrov on Wednesday repeated Russia’s warning that it would take countermeasures if the plan goes ahead For its part, China is uneasy about U.S.-Japanese missile defense cooperation which – although focused on the North Korean threat — Beijing worries could become a factor in the event of any future armed conflict over Taiwan. According to Chinese assessment, not only will the missile defense program fail to meet the security concerns of the related country, but also it may possibly damage the world’s strategic balance and stability.
Three-way meetings initially involving scholars and officials began in 2001. A statement issued at the first meeting, in Moscow, noted that the three had “common or similar positions” on issues, including “democratization of international relations, formation of a multi-polar world, opposing hegemony [and] construction of a fair and rational new international order.”
Foreign ministers from the three countries have met several times since 2002. India also has been invited to observe summits and joint military exercises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a six-country Asian grouping dominated by Russia and China.
But in recent years, the U.S. also has moved to strengthen military, economic and diplomatic ties with India. Policy makers in the U.S. and India have described a landmark civilian nuclear cooperation deal between the two large democracies as a significant and strategic initiative. The agreement now is in grave trouble, however, as a result of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s failure to get communist allies’ approval in parliament.
Some Indian analysts argue that their country cannot afford to develop strategic ties with the U.S. to the exclusion of other important countries in its neighborhood.
According to Gen. V.P. Malik, a former top Indian army general and now president of the Observer Research Foundation’s Institute of Security Studies in New Delhi, “India cannot afford to let go of its strategic autonomy. In the present world order, a nation of India’s stature and potential can and should play an independent role and cooperate or compete on issues with other nations, depending upon its national interests.”
Dr. Subhash Kapila, a strategic affairs analyst with the India-based South Asia Analysis Group, also stresses India’s need for ‘strategic autonomy.’ According to him, the evolving Indo-U.S. partnership was under ‘intense scrutiny’ from China and Russia, and said India cannot afford to discount those power centers.
Prospects
Undeniably, Russia, India and China have commonality of interests in fighting global terrorism and strengthening politico-economic cooperation in the new historic conditions. Convergence of political and economic interests of these three countries is bringing them closer to each other. If this triangular relationship continues to grow and deepen, it will become a decisive factor in this part of the planet.
Russia, China and India during the last decade not only faced the threat of terrorism but also suffered from it. In this way, the three countries are natural geopolitical allies in the struggle against international terrorism and by forming a triangle they can deal better with terrorism.
Development of the trilateral relationship is not going to affect their respective relationship with US, rather strengthen their position to deal with US. In the long term it is confidence between these three powers that will allow them to play a larger role in world politics and in the process build more balanced world order.
Russia, India and China have very close views on most key issues, such as on the U.N. Charter, international law, commitment on resolving international problems through political dialogue and establishment of a multilateral and just world order. This trilateral interaction is important for global stability by formulating this triangle Moscow, Delhi, and Beijing will indeed construct a new geometry of relations.
In terms of their role in total world economic output, Russia, China and India if taken together have a weight comparable to that of the European Union. All three nations face great economic and security challenges, which they can solve by cooperating with each other. There is an experience and practice of bilateral cooperation but there is no truly significant trilateral cooperation mechanism yet. At the economic level there is potential for India, Russia and China to cooperate with each other in areas such as high technology, machinery, energy, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, chemicals etc. Joint ventures could be set up in any of the above mentioned areas. By coordinating their policies on global economic issues India, Russia and China could drive benefit in the long run.
At the exploratory stage of trilateral cooperation, it would be worthwhile to identify areas of common interests. Russia-India-China could participate jointly in constructing transport corridors (one envisaged rail connection from Bangladesh to Kazakhstan) or building of oil pipelines, improving banking facilities etc. Cooperation at various multilateral fora could strengthen their bargaining positions.
It would be an exaggeration to believe that the establishment of tripartite Russia-China-India Cooperation and their successful breakthrough into the future will be flawless and smooth in the present scenario. A lot of difficulties and obstacles are in store for them, which could be overcome as far as the cooperation is defined by objective circumstances and by positive initiation of the leaders of these three countries.
Washington should look with equanimity on this rapprochement. China and India have no intention of sacrificing links with America. Both may act as a moderating force on what seems to be the paranoid resentment coming from Moscow. Both can provide a stable framework for the rapid advance of the Asian region. And all three have a vital interest in securing a predictable trading environment, to enrich their impatient, populous and demanding audiences at home.
Dr. Arvind Kumar: Article Published in SAR Economist/April 2008/P.No.65/
