Many scholars, both Indian and foreign, have frequently argued that India lacks a strategic culture and this criticism is valid to some extent.1 Ongoing terrorist activities in different parts of India, Pakistan’s intransigence in handing over the accused persons involved in many terrorist attacks in India – the latest being the Mumbai bomb blasts in early December 2008, China’s growing influence in India’s neighbourhood as a tacit move of encircling India etc., are some of the recent developments that make the observers feel that India lacks strategic culture is rather strategically vulnerable.
India’s strategic vulnerabilities have internal dimensions which are more serious and worrisome. While briefly appraising these dimensions, this article also endeavours to make suggestions for improving the situation to country’s strategic advantage.
Internal Dimensions
Growing terrorist violence in J&K and other parts of the country, Naxalite and Maoist violence, insurgency in India’s North-east region, economic downturn, and India’s porous borders are the main dimensions of India’s internal strategic vulnerability.
Economic Downturn
The global economic crunch which started gaining ground in the second half of 2008 made its adverse impact felt on India’s economy from December 2008. In the wake of international economic meltdown and fall in Indian exports, various assumptions began to pour in about India’s economic growth rate.
Former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram expressed the hope that India might experience a moderation in growth rate to between 7-8 per cent. However, other analysts and agencies were not so sure – IMF for instance expected growth to be around 5 per cent.
India recorded 5.3 per cent growth in quarter ending December 2008, lowest in 5 years, down from 7.6 per cent in quarter ending August 2008. Sectors like manufacturing, communications, trade, agriculture, and construction, main drivers of the economy in the past, are witnessing a decrease in growth.2
Many analysts are sanguine about India economy vibrating again by the end of 2009 and this optimism is based on the fact that India is still the second fastest growing economy in the world, and a trillion dollar economy. The bright spots of resurgent economy include burgeoning domestic demand -fastest growing mobile phone market in the world (400 million cell-phone users, addition of 15.6 million in March 2009 alone); Passenger car sales rose by 22 per cent in rural India in February 2009. This increase is pertinent in the light of the fact that over 70 per cent of India’s populace live in rural areas.
Besides, high savings rate of over 35 per cent – $200 billion a year being saved – is also a saving grace. However, the delayed monsoon, the rising government debt, as a percentage of GDP, expected to reach to over 11 per cent in 2010, decline in overseas remittances and declining trends in the FDI are causes of concern.
Economic crunch affects social sector the most and ambitious defence plans also entail the possibility of being deferred or delayed for want of economic resources.
Naxalite and Maoist Violence
The violent incidents being perpetrated by the Naxalites and Maoist activists, particularly in 9 states – Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are worrisome for country’s internal security. Only four states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Orissa together account for over 85 per cent of incidents and casualties. In 2007, 1565 naxal incidents took place, resulting in 837 deaths of civilians, naxalites, and casualties in security force operations. In 2008, 1591 naxal incidents claimed 920 deaths.3
Apart from dealing with the Naxalite and Maoist violence with a stern hand, there is also a need for accelerating the pace of socio-economic development activities in affected areas so that the rural folks, particularly the tribals, do not fall a prey to the machinations of the Naxalites. The Government of India’s recent decision to impose ban on he Maoist Movement is a welcome step.
The security forces deployed in the affected areas should be trained in winning the confidence of the local populace and intelligence network should be strengthened simultaneously.
Situation in Jammu and Kashmir
The strategic location of Jammu & Kashmir and its being a bone of contention between India and Pakistan make it a vital factor in India’s security. The terrorist violence, mainly perpetrated by Pakistan-based terrorist outfits since early 1990s, has thus far claimed over 40,000 lives. However, situation seems improving with terrorist incidents down by nearly 40 per cent in 2008 and killings by the security forces has also reportedly decreased by more than 30 per cent in recent couple of years.4
There is also reported decline in the level of infiltration, though rigorous attempts are being made by terrorists, with active support and connivance of Pakistan. India’s repeated requests to Pakistan to stop terrorist training camps on Pak soil and hand over wanted terrorists, currently hiding inside Pakistan, have fallen on flat ears.
However, India should continue its efforts of engaging Pakistan, and if necessary, request America to use its influence with Islamabad to cooperate with India in stemming the tide of terrorist violence in J&K.
The installation of National Conference government led by Omar Abdullah in the elections held in November-December 2008 is a welcome development to promote stability and security in the state. The Centre should render all possible assistance to the state government in this regard.
Northeast Insurgencies
India’s North-east region, comprising Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura, has been infested with insurgency since decades.5 However, in the past couple of years, there has been reduced civilian casualties and increase in numbers of militants killed/arrested/surrendered. In 2008, 506 civilians and security forces personnel were killed as compared to 577 in 2007. Besides, 4139 militants were killed/arrested/surrendered, as against 2975 in 2007.6
The situation in Nagaland, Manipur and Assam is still a cause for concern because of cross-border insurgent havens, militants indulging in arms trafficking, drug running, and extortion. Besides, the continuing illegal immigration from Bangladesh also poses a great challenge to India.
Apart from continuing the vigilance along India’s porous borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh and operations by the security forces against the militants, there is a dire need to focus simultaneously on speedy pace of socioeconomic reforms designed to better the lot of the local populace.
Challenge of Terrorism
India has been hard hit by terrorism, first in Punjab during 1980s and 1990s, then in J&K from early 1990s till date. However, major cities of India like Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Malegaon, Mumbai etc., have become worst affected by incidents of terrorism in recent years. This terrorism is both homegrown (Islamic and Hindu) and entails cross-border linkages.7
The cross-border terror linkages are widely spread at the eastern and western borders. The acceleration in terrorist violence can be attributed to missing links in intelligence gathering, analysis and dissemination, as well as weak coordination among law enforcement agencies.
In order to stem the tide of terrorist violence in the country, there is a great necessity of establishing a network of multi-agency centres, develop HUMINT and TECHNIT. Besides, apart from augmenting domestic counter-terrorism infrastructure, there is also a great need for showing political resolve.
The recently established National Investigative Agency is a welcome move in the direction of containing terrorism and it should be harnessed into action without brooking further delay.
Porous Borders
India has vast land border extending over 15, 000 km with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar. Most of this land border area is a difficult terrain and porous as well. Attack on the legislative assembly of J&K in December 2001 and recent terrorist attack in Mumbai on 26 November 2008 exposed India’s vulnerable land and maritime security architecture.
Such a scenario calls for better connectivity, thorough fencing, proper surveillance equipment, curtailing fragmentation of responsibilities among different agencies (for instance between the Coast Guard and the Navy regarding maritime security etc. Viewed in a broad spectrum, India’s unstable borders exacerbating security concerns.
Proliferation of Small Arms
Another worrisome factor that entails the potential of rendering India’s security vulnerable is the proliferation of small lethal arms in the country.
According to one report, of the illegal arms in circulation worldwide estimated at 75 million pieces a shocking 40 million have found their way into India. An equal number, if not more, is being manufactured in illegal arms factories in UP and Bihar, available for as little as Rs 200. And small arms, through their direct use or even threat of it, inflicted more deaths, injuries, rapes, kidnappings and torture than any other weapon.8
Naturally, this means these arms make their way to the underworld, the dacoits and the Naxalites. A part of it is diverted into the hands of insurgents in J&K and the Northeast. This is a matter of serious concerns about the easy accessibility of small and lethal arms and their unhindered use across north and central India.
The entry points of arms are land routes via Myanmar, and the sea route through Chittagong in Bangladesh. Also through Nepal, Punjab and J&K. Chinese small arms are now popular.
Conclusion
India’s security is more vulnerable to internal threats which call for well-concerted urgent attention with specific emphasis on filling up and repairing the chinks in security on priority basis. Being the world’s largest democracy, India is also faced with myriad challenges of immense magnitude. The new government at the Centre has got the mandate and it should hit the ground running.
Undoubtedly, there are plenty causes of optimism which include a multi-ethnic and multi-linguistic youthful populace, well-established institutions, free press, active judiciary and rising capabilities of security forces. However, the cause of concern emanates from India’s unstable neigbourhood.
Notes
- For a detailed discussion on this aspect see, Lt. Gen (Retd.) Satish Nambiar, “India’s Strategic Interests”, South Asian Journal, January-March 2004, available at http://www.southasianmedia.net/Magazine/Journal/indiastrategicinterests.htm .
- Dun and Bradstreet, Economy Observer, Issue No. 20, December 2008, available at www.dnb.co.in/…/D&B%20Economy%20Observer%20December%20202008%20Issue%2020.pdf.
- Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs, Year End Review, January 2008- December 2008, New Delhi: MHA, 2009.
- Ibid.
- For background information on insurgency in the North-East India, see Girin Phukon (ed.), Political Dynamics of North East India, New Delhi: South Asian Publishers, 2001.
- India, Ministry of Home Affairs, Year End Review, n. 3.
- For details see, Devyani Srivastava, Terrorism and Armed Violence in India, report No. 71, May 2009, New Delhi: IPCS, 2009; available at www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/SR71-Final.pdf .
- For more details see, Bhavna VijAurora, “Blazing Saddles: Half of the world’s small arms supply, 40 million guns, wreaks havoc in the countryside”, Outlook, 3 April 2006 issue, available at www.iansa.org/…/India-home-to-half-world-illegal-guns-April2006.pdf .
Articled Published in Third Concept/July 2009/Vol.23/No.269/P.no.7
