Dr. Arvind Kumar*
From COVID-19 pandemic to violent conflicts, forced displacement and climate change, humanity is badly affected. We have to work towards achieving disaster risk reduction goals and further enhance global preparedness against disaster. The world has been talking about increasing investments in DRR, but only a small fraction of disaster management funding goes to risk reduction, most of the fund is allocated to disaster response. Under the effect of climate change, extreme events that used to occur once every 100 years have begun to occur every five years, as per latest IPCC report. Though exposure to extreme events is linear, the impacts are non-linear and depend on a region’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For some, it may entail adjustments and re-adjustments of livelihood options, but for others, the impacts can be catastrophic, compounding beyond existing vulnerability thresholds.
“The Extraordinary Is No Longer Extraordinary”
South Asia is among the most vulnerable regions to climate risks, and remains highly prone to cyclones, extreme monsoon rainfall variability, floods, food and water insecurity, and extreme heat from rising temperatures. More than half of all South Asians or 750 million people were affected by one or more climate-related disasters in the last two decades. A recent example is land subsidence at Joshimath, Uttarakhand affecting hundreds of people and devastating floods in Pakistan that impacted over 32 million people and caused damages estimated at around $10 billion. Floods and inundation of varying intensity was recorded across other countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. This followed soon after a deadly heat-wave in South Asia, where the highest temperatures were recorded in 122 years in parts of the region. For up to 800 million people in an area with some of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations, the changing climate could drastically worsen living conditions. The GDP per capita projected losses due to climate change for South Asian nations are higher than the global average of roughly 7%, with Bhutan potentially losing 18% of its GDP, Nepal losing 13%, India losing 10%, and Pakistan losing 10% in 2100.
The evolution of climate related DRR in India
India is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. It is exposed to recurrent natural hazards such as floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, and droughts. India experienced almost one extreme weather event per day last year in 2022. On the basis of data collected from the India Meteorological Department and the Disaster Management Department of the Ministry of Home Affairs, the study found that out of 273 days between January 1 and September 30, 241 days, or 88 % of the time, were marked by an extreme weather event. Lok Sabha data reportedly revealed as many as 1,593 lives were lost due to natural calamities in 2021-22; 1,989 in 2019-20 and 2,422 in 2020-21. Many of these lives could have been saved if there was an alert. Therefore the need to strengthen the National Disaster Management Authority has assumed urgency.
Following the super storm in Odisha in 1999 and the earthquake in Bhuj in 2001, India launched a multifaceted effort to lower the risk of such disasters. Policymakers today agree that disaster mitigation must be a part of the development process for development to be sustainable. In 2006, a dedicated unit known as the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) was established. In the states, disaster management authorities have been established wherein 26 states have created their State Disaster Response Forces at this point (SDRFs).
The concept of disaster management in India has been in existence since ancient times at the time of establishment of cities itself. In resonance to the same, currently the budgetary provision for disaster management has been increased by 122% in the last eight years; Common Alerting Protocol’ project is being implemented across the country to strengthen the last mile spread of early warnings. The central government has also allocated Rs 13,693 crore for the National Disaster Mitigation Fund and Rs 32,031 crore for the State Disaster Mitigation Fund for the period 2021-22 to 2025-26. Furthermore, the Union government has selected seven cities for the implementation of the Urban Flood Risk Management programme. Hopefully the plan gives the much-needed thrust to prevention. Proper regulation of river floodplains is imperative. A study on a prototype to anticipate landslides in the Darjeeling district of West Bengal and the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu is being conducted by the Geological Survey of India (GSI) in collaboration with the British Geological Survey. By the beginning of 2025, if the model is deemed adequate, it may be implemented in some regions of India.
Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
The latest floods in Bengaluru were a disgrace to urban flood management. The flaws in the flood management system were made clear by the floods in Kerala in 2020. Therefore the most pertinent question arises is who is responsible for all such events, Government, planning authorities or citizens? Furthermore, we should also recognize that disasters can expose and deepen existing injustices in society which can then lead to further injustices. Thus, are duties and responsibilities for DRRM activities fairly and equitably distributed across members of society? How do inequities affect the capacities to manage risks? How can we better involve communities in DRRM related policies? The questions posed are only starting points, and maybe complex to answer; but then the solutions to the wicked problems humanity faces today require deliberate policy and shaking to encourage purposive actions to sustainable and resilient futures.
India urgently needs national and sub-national strategies to climate-proof its population and economic growth. India still needs to learn how to scientifically handle disasters, which can only happen when exact early alerts are sent out; provision of a high-resolution Climate Risk Atlas (CRA) to map critical vulnerabilities at the district level to identify, assess, and project chronic and acute risks, establishment of a centralized climate-risk commission to coordinate the environmental de-risking mission, we need to undertake climate-sensitivity-led landscape restoration focusing on rehabilitation, restoration, and reintegration of natural ecosystems as part of the developmental process, we also need to integrate climate risk profiling with infrastructure planning to increase adaptive capacity, and most importantly provision of climate risk-interlinked adaptation financing by creating innovative CVI-based financing instruments that integrate climate risks for an effective risk transfer mechanism.
Way Forward
Across the world, societies and organizations endorse humanitarian disaster risk reduction. The objective is to install measures for risk analysis, disaster mitigation, and preparedness to protect civil society and invest in capacity building, particularly in less developed economies. At the same time, many high-value assets, such as oil refineries, are located in hazard areas. Such assets are also threatened by climate change and extreme weather events. One example was the flooding in Europe this past July, which caused loss of lives and livelihoods. Criticism arose that local disaster preparedness, including hazard early-warning systems, was insufficient. Disaster risk can be decreased through careful planning, early warning systems, wetlands protection and restoration, infrastructure investment, awareness, education, and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, both top-down institutional reforms and methods and bottom-up local, community-based approaches are necessary for effective disaster risk reduction. To prevent or mitigate actual damage from dangers, regulation and enforcement are required. Communities can be less affected by consequences thanks to awareness, education, readiness, and prediction and warning systems. Only then can the difficulty of future climate risk reduction be understood.
*President, India Water Foundation
