Pakistan’s gushing conundrum

Shweta Tyagi*

The first half of this decade will be apparently remembered for deadly climate related catastrophes, among them, the great fires in Europe, Amazon wildfires, cyclones and storms in India and floods in Pakistan. The year 2020 was the Earth’s warmest tied with 2016 on record, continuing a long term warming trend due to human activities. It is hydro meteorological (floods, storms, heat waves) and climatological disasters (droughts, wildfires) rather than geophysical ones (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions) that are on the rise.

The global increase in intense floods, storms, droughts, and heat waves has a likely and gloomy link to climate change. There is a growing literature on the evidence linking anthropogenic climate change with natural disasters. Drawing attention to these climate-related disasters, arguably the most tangible manifestation of global warming, could help mobilize broader climate action. And it could influence the directions taken for economic growth worldwide and pave the way to a much needed switch to a path of low-carbon, green growth.

In the last 4 decades, the frequency of natural disasters recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) has increased almost three-fold, from over 1,300 events in 1975–1984 to over 3,900 in 2005–2014. The number of hydrological and meteorological events increased sharply during this period, with the annual number of storms tripling between 1980 and 2008 (ADB, IED 2013).

Although the causal relationship between climate change and natural disasters is not fully understood, we are still faced with the fact that the frequency of climate-related natural disasters is rising. Flooding is the most shattering natural hazard in South Asia due to diverse ecosystems and occurs mainly due to the heavy monsoon rains throughout the nation, commonly late in the summer season and overflow the rivers and streams over dry land. In the region they stand as a common problem and their continuity makes them more alarming for its economic growth. Its impacts of food vary from one place to another and in the consequences there are significant losses such as human life loss their shelter, livelihood, damage on the infrastructure such as roads and bridges.

The IPCC (2014) disaster risk framework sets out three linkages involving climate-related disasters. First, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alter atmospheric GHG concentrations and thus affect climate variables, specifically temperature and precipitation (IPCC 2007). Second, changes in the climate variables affect the frequency of climate-related hazards (IPCC 2012). Third, the frequency of climate related hazards affects the risk of natural disasters (IPCC 2012

The Asia and the Pacific region have experienced some of the most damaging disasters in recent decades, with alarming consequences for human welfare. At the same time, the climate in the region has been changing. Temperatures have been higher, on average, and also more variable and more extreme. Rainfall has also been more variable and more extreme. Is there a relationship between these changes in climate and the increase in natural disasters in Asia and the Pacific?

Pakistan has experienced extreme rainfall since the monsoon season began in mid June. Thus has led to severe flooding impacting more than 33 million people and a third of them are children, as per Pakistan’s NDMA. Among them, more than three million children are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance due to the risk of waterborne diseases, drowning and malnutrition, according to UNICEF. The flooding, result of an unusually wet monsoon season in Pakistan this has worsened over the half of Pakistan, have been badly hit, although Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa too have been affected. Pakistan’s officials have called it “the monster monsoon of the decade”. This year’s floods are comparable to 2010, when unusually heavy rains led the Indus River to inundate areas far beyond its banks affecting the densely populated Punjab and other regions. They also shared data from Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) that said nearly 33 million people; about 15% of the country’s population had been affected by the floods. The flood water has destroyed large parts of the infrastructure and crops in Pakistan’s breadbasket. According to reports, Pakistan has already received support to the tune of $4.5 billion from the IMF, the United Nations, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

The issue is a significant environmental disaster, since the area is primarily based on an agrarian economy with severe long term impacts on both the environment and livelihoods.

The current flood is a direct result of an extremely wet monsoon season this year; the same Southwest monsoon that brings the bulk of India’s annual rainfall also causes rain in Pakistan as well. The monsoon season there, however, is a little shorter than in India. That is because the rain bearing monsoon winds take time to travel northward from India into Pakistan. Hence, the active rainfall season is only one and a half months.

The annual monsoon’s essential for irrigating crops and replenishing lakes and dams across the subcontinent, but with each successive year brings a wave of destruction. According to officials in Pakistan, human induced Climate Change has brought stronger monsoons and more damage. Pakistan is vulnerable to such events due to a number of reasons. Pakistan’s geography is varied- the country has a large number of glaciers in the north, arid deserts and fertile agricultural lands in the central part of the country, and megacities like Karachi that are close to sea level and will be severely impacted as sea levels ride. Climate scientists have noted that global warming has led to significant changes in weather patterns around the world. In the case of Pakistan, this has season.

The large-scale devastation caused by the floods will lead to huge loss to farmers; leading to a need to import more food in a country where already economy is going through tough times. On August 25, The Government declared a national emergency. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary – General, said that this is a signal to the world to step up climate action warning: “Today, it’s Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be your country”.

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall events in South Asia in recent decades. There is some evidence that this is due to human caused Climate Change.

The similarities between the calamity confronting Pakistan today and India’s recent experiences with weather vagaries are striking. This shouldn’t be surprising. The two countries have shared colonial legacies in urban planning and flood management. The same southwest monsoon that brings the bulk of India’s annual rainfall causes rain in Pakistan as well. The melting glaciers in the Himalayas do not respect borders. The ecological continuities in the Subcontinent make the case for regional cooperation on climate-related matters compelling. India and Pakistan do come together during negotiations at the UNFCCC fora — they are a part of an informal coalition that often asks for more financial action from developed countries to check climate change.

However, there is limited agreement between different assessed studies, and factors other than climate change such as irrigation, are known to influence monsoons. Clues as to the role of Climate Change can also come from aspects that contributed to this disaster. There are three main factors:

First, extreme rainfall; A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. For every degree the atmosphere warms it can hold about 6-7 % more moisture which often results in more rain falling during the most extreme events. (South Asia has warmed around 0.7^oC since 1900). Had this event happened in a world where CO₂ concentrations were instead at pre- industrial levels, the rains probably would have been less intense.

Second, monsoon itself which is highly complex and variable; it forms in South Asia in the summer; the winds bring great volumes of moisture that precipitates into deluges when they meet higher ground, especially the Himalayas.

Third, such unusual monsoon rains happen when multiple phenomenons coincide, including a La Nina event in the Pacific and large meanders in the high altitude jet stream, as was the case in both 2010 and this year.

There is emerging evidence that this confluence of factors may occur more regularly as the climate changes. If such trends continue, then flooding in Pakistan and other simultaneous extremes across the Northern Hemisphere will happen more often in the future.

However, the standpoint of South Asian nations towards forces of nature seems to be frozen in an era when the place of river and mountain systems in diplomacy is determined by economic and political considerations. The Subcontinent could learn from ASEAN’s step to draft a State of Climate Report on the eve of COP-26 last year — it sketches platforms for cooperation and collaboration in the region for combating climate challenges. Data sharing mechanisms on river flows, flood alert systems, even a common renewable energy-dominated electricity grid, could substantially reduce the climate vulnerability of people in South Asia.

*Chief Functionary, India Water Foundation