AGENDA
Dr. Arvind Kumar*
Assumption of the Indian presidency of the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023 and that of the UN Security Council in December 2022 takes place at a moment of unprecedented change and challenge when the Planet Earth is confronted with dominant concerns entailing the most critical long-term threats in the form of climate action failure, extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, debt crises, geo-economic confrontations, digital inequality, cross-border cyber attacks, space exploitation, international crime, and regional military confrontations with global ramifications, etc. Presiding over G20 and SCO are likely to test India’s diplomatic acumen and negotiating skills because of the diversity of geopolitical interests and geo-economic stakes represented by respective member nations of each organization. A cogent appreciation of challenges and opportunities awaiting India’s presidency of each organization can be better comprehended by focusing on the individual organization.
G 20 Presidency
India will assume a year-long presidency of the G20 commencing from 1 December 2022 to 30 November 2023, and during this duration, India is expected to host over 200 meetings with hundreds of ministers, officials, diplomats, businessmen, non-government organizations (NGOs), working groups and engagement groups. The G20, better known in the past for working together with the emerging economies in delineating global challenges and scripting their solutions, in the early years of the third decade of 21 century, is confronted with an existential crisis, where the major powers have fallen out, thereby making the task of the presiding country more complex and subtle, and perhaps Indonesia – the outgoing president – must have discovered so.
The forthcoming G20 Summit is scheduled to be held in November 2022 in Bali (Indonesia) in the wake of the devastating impact of COVID-19, the ongoing armed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, border tensions between India and China, EU/US – Russia hostility, deteriorating US-China relations and the mounting menace of climate change. Conceding that the outcome of the Bali Summit entails the potential of bearing an impact on New Delhi’s presidency of the G20, some experts have cautioned the Indian diplomats to carefully plan their strategy in view of the ensuing burden and prestige of the G20 presidency being bequeathed on India. At a time when the geopolitical trends are redefining the contours of geo-economics, the tasks of the Indian diplomats assume added dimensions, and they are called upon not only to ensure the cohesiveness and success of the grouping but also to safeguard the future of multilateral cooperation in different realms of the grouping’s multi-faceted agenda as well. Nevertheless, this affords Indian diplomacy an ample opportunity of promoting India’s national interest along with leaving its mark on the members of the grouping as a successful negotiator and maintaining its primacy as an effective instrument of global governance.
SCO Presidency
The presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is rotational and is handed over to the incumbent country for a year, and it was at the 22nd SCO summit at Samarkand (Uzbekistan) in September this year that the rotational presidency of the SCO was handed over to India which will hold the presidency of the grouping for a year until 2023, and India will host the next meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of the State. Initially, the SCO was launched in June 2001 with six founding members – China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and India and Pakistan joined as full members of the grouping in 2017, and Iran was admitted to the grouping at the recently-held SCO summit in Samarkand. The SCO has reportedly emerged as one of the largest trans-regional international organizations. The Samarkand Declaration envisages concerns of the SCO Member States on multiple global challenges and threats including the technological and digital divide, continued turbulence in global financial markets, disruptions in supply chains, growing protectionist measures, and uncertainty pervading the global economy.
The SCO’s Samarkand Summit was held amidst the ongoing exchange of armed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, India-China border tensions, and the outbreak of conflict on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. There was no exchange of pleasantries between India’s Prime Minister Modi and the Chinese president Xi Jinping on the one hand and between the Pakistani Prime Minister and the Indian Prime Minister at the Summit. Nevertheless, the Indian PM held bilateral meetings with Russian President Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. According to some experts, PM Modi’s meeting with President Putin was evidently not the ‘most pleasant interaction’ because PM Modi, for the first time, publicly expressed his country’s annoyance at the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with PM Modi saying that “today’s era is not of war and we have spoken to you many times on the phone that democracy, diplomacy, and dialogue are such things that touch the world.” Nonetheless, Putin’s response was more snappy when he said: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express. We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.” Nevertheless, this part of the conversation between Modi and Putin evoked mixed reactions in the global media.
While referring to emergent disruptions in global supply chains in the wake of COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, PM Modi in his address to the Samarkand Summit called upon the SCO to become adaptable and “develop reliable, resilient and diversified supply chains requiring better connectivity, as well as it will be important that we all give each other full right to transit.”
India is going to preside over the SCO when its very purpose is increasing in question in view of the fact that there exist grave internal disagreements and suspicions among the members of this grouping. Increasing proximity between Beijing and Moscow vis-à-vis Washington on the one hand and border tensions between New Delhi and Beijing on the other, simmering border tensions between the Central Asian countries which are members of the SCO, estranged relationship between India and Pakistan as well as Turkish criticism of India’s stance on J&K along with a host of other global issues pertaining to climate change, biodiversity, economy, and emerging world order, etc., are such issues that are going to test India’s diplomatic acumen in its presidency year of the SCO.
Presidency of UN Security Council
India will assume the presidency of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for one month in December 2022 and India’s term of two years as a non-permanent member of the UNSC will come to an end on 31 December 2022. The UN Security Council comprises 15 members, of which five are permanent members and 10 non-permanent members are elected for a two-year term, and each non-permanent member gets the opportunity to preside over the Security Council for one month by rotation. It is not the first time that India will take over the presidency of the UNSC. Being a non-permanent member enjoying the presidency of the UNSC for one month, India cannot display much of its diplomatic acumen in influencing the decisions of the UNSC within its short tenure; nonetheless, it can avail this opportunity to mobilize more support for its bid for a permanent seat at the UNSC.
Of the five permanent members of the UNSC, four permanent members – the US, UK, France, and Russia – have extended their support for India’s bid for a permanent seat, and China is the only permanent member which is yet to officially support India’s bid. And in the near future as well, China cannot be expected to support India’s case. India needs to build up its geopolitical and geo-economic clout to outwit China, and it is a long journey entailing some decades.
India’s annual contribution to the UN is mere around $ 23 million relative to high contributions by other countries like Australia, Canada, South Korea, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, and Turkey while the UK, France, Germany, Japan, China, and the US contribute many times more comparable to India. Economic and military prowess accompanied by technological stewardship is the key to India’s predominant role in the emerging global order.
Way Forward
Recent years have witnessed India confronted with some significant diplomatic and security challenges, which emanated from China’s actions, traversing the great powers’ game, the advent of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the resultant Afghanistan-Pakistan axis, domestic economic downturn, and amalgamation of geopolitical and geo-economic challenges at regional and global levels. Some experts have pointed out to lack of nimbleness in thought and action in India’s diplomacy and they emphasize building economic prowess to be counted among the global players.
*Editor, Focus Global Reporter
