India is passing through a critical phase at the present juncture. On the one hand, country is readying to take off to emerge as an economic superpower in a decade’s time, next to United States and China, and on the other hand, domestic political, economic, social and strategic conditions coupled with lopsided foreign policy are prone to thwart efforts towards onward march to progress and development. This worrisome situation compels us to ponder over as to where we are heading for and what is our locus standi to substantiate our claim of an emerging economic giant? Whether it was the regime of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the present dispensation at the Centre headed by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with Congress in the driver’s seat and Left parties supporting it from outside, the modus operandi of governance is almost the same.
Economic Boom for Whom?
Under either regime, the rich has become more richer and the poor has been rendered more poorer. The statistical jugglery based on rising Sensex figures is no reflection of economic boom because it favours de la crème or the upper crust of the society which forms only a very small figment of the total population where as vast majority comprises the struggling middle class and the poor people. The spate of economic reforms initiated at the outset of the 1990s was designed to alleviate the burden of poverty and ensure all-round progress. After 16 years this has not happened and the chasm between the rich and the poor is further widening, instead of being narrowed down.
Indian rupee gaining strength vis-à-vis American dollar may be a happy augury for some but exporters are getting less in terms of rupee appreciation and it has affected the exports. Thus far, neither Reserve Bank of India nor any other similar institution has come out with remedial measures to stem the tide of rupee appreciating against US dollar. In the long run, it can bode ill for our exports thereby further widening gap between imports and exports. Energy is already eating a major chunk of our foreign exchange and thus far we have not been able to ensure long-term energy security as china has already done. The phenomenal augmentation in the prices of crude oil and gas are bound to have adverse impact on our economy which is currently not in a position to sustain such shocks.
The economic boom has benefited only the uppermost crust of the Indian society which constitutes only a fractional part of the population whereas the Aam Adami or common man who represents the vast majority of population has remained on the margin and neither the government nor the private sector has bothered to care for him. The UPA, which stole electoral march over NDA’s ‘India Shinning’ by raising the questions pertaining to the plight of Aam Adami, has also failed to provide succour to man on the street who voted NDA out to bring in UPA with the hope of ameliorating his plight.
Rural poor are the worst sufferers because they have not been provided with any relief that can be said to alleviate their economic miseries. Undoubtedly, the Union Government under UPA has initiated many programmes designed to better the lot of rural and urban poor, but the benefits of these programmes are not reaching the deserving ones and those benefits are filtered away by the corrupt elements. What is required at this juncture is strong monitoring mechanism to oversee the implementation of these programmes and bring the culprit to books. Besides, the non-farm sectoral activities need to be encouraged in the rural areas in order to provide regular employment to the seasonal agricultural labour as well as preventing exodus of labour to urban areas in search of greener pastures.
This is high time for the government to rationalize the policy for taking over agricultural land for establishing SEZs. The areas invested with fertile land and high agricultural yield should be kept out of the purview of SEZ and attention should be paid to see that unscrupulous elements don’t hoodwink the gullible farmers through lucrative prices to grab their land. There is a need to form a central nodal agency to formulate a national policy for acquiring agricultural land either for development or industrial purposes and distribution of this land should be done by the nodal agency in consultation with the owners of the land and state government as well as local Panchayat members. This will ensure protection of farmers’ interests.
Political Chaos
Undoubtedly, political stability eludes us and we have been living this phenomenon for over two decades now. The decline of ‘one-party-dominance’ system yielded place to coalitional politics both at the Centre and the states of the Indian Union. Until the end of the 1980s, with a brief interlude of Janata Party rule (March 1977 to December 1979), the country had witnessed dominance of Congress Party at the Centre as well as in most of the states. After the demise of Pt Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first Prime Minister, in May 1964, the Congress became a little bit shaky, particularly under the initial phase of Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s leadership (1967-1969). During this period, non-Congress opposition parties managed to make their political presence felt both at the Centre and some of the states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, etc.
The Congress under Mrs. Gandhi happened to gain strength at the outset of the 1970s and thus ‘one-party-dominance’ system was re-asserted. However, it proved short-lived because of the imposition of Internal Emergency in June 1975 and the consequential elections held in March 1977. The electoral triumph of Janata Party, a combination of several national and regional parties, started a new chapter in Indian politics when for the first time a non-Congress government was installed at the Centre and coalition governments assumed power in several states.
The coalition phenomenon gained salience again from mid-1990s onwards. An interesting feature of this coalition era was the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the decline of the Congress Party. However, both national parties were the decisive factors in the formation of alternate governments at the Centre with the cooperation of regional satraps. Another interesting aspect was the increase in bargaining power of the regional parties at the Centre in terms of demand of portfolios and dictating terms for formation of coalition governments in the states. This coalition phenomenon has come to stay and no immediate viable alternative seems to be available. In other words, we have to live with this phenomenon.
Viewed in abroad spectrum, coalition government is not bad provided it is run on principles and full understanding and cooperation of all partners. The pre-election coalition is more durable as compared to post-election coalition because it is based on mutual understanding, common minimum programme and consensus on broad national issues. Coalition is the order of the day in many European countries, including the Scandinavian countries. Coalition governments are running smoothly in those countries and for India it is a new experiment and its being in vogue for about one and a half decade seems to have provided some working experience for the national and regional parties. It is not a happy augury for political stability in India because the regional parties seldom care for the national interests and prefer to push their parochial and provincial interests at the expense of national interest.
The national parties, particularly the Congress and the BJP, have been suffering from identity crisis on the one hand and leadership crisis on the other. Viewed in a broad perspective, it is the leadership crisis that has led to the emergence of other types of crises. Both parties are afflicted by internal power tussle for the top slot but the contenders are too fragile to claim their place under the sun. It is this crisis of leadership that has proved instrumental in eroding the credibility among the masses. The old guards are disinterested in yielding place to younger leadership by pretending that the youth is immature and unable to understand the nuances of Indian politics and revitalize the party at the grassroots level.
The BJP is dominated by Atlal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K Advani and the past many decades, since the days the erstwhile Jana Singh, have witnessed the baton of leadership just changing hands between the two. However, for the sake of experiment or eyewash in the public, the onus of top leadership was heaped on non-entities and the result was chaos in the rank and file of the party. Under the prevailing circumstances, particularly when Vajpayee is not keeping good health and there was great controversy over the leadership of Advani that baton was passed on to Raj Nath Singh.
The BJP has not gained its lost ground under Raj Nath Singh and this was tested in UP elections as well as in the recently held elections to the Gujarat Assembly elections. Keeping in view the various controversies surrounding Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, the central leadership of the BJP was unable to find a suitable alternative to Modi who could rebounce the party back to power. Thus, the central leadership had to bear Modi as a necessary evil. And Modi has proved his mettle by winning the elections. This shows that even in the national level parties, regional leaders are emerging as a force to reckon with and national leadership has no other option but to concede regional leadership to them.
Almost an identical state of affairs pervades the Congress where writ of Sonia Gandhi runs larger than life. As president of the Congress Party, Sonia has an effective and productive role to play and she is playing it sagaciously. However, the tag of ‘foreign origin’ haunts her and she cannot be a prime ministerial candidate. Priyanka Gandhi has some charisma and prime ministerial matter but she is married into non-Gandhi family and this rules out her possibility of being a prime ministerial candidate on behalf of the Congress. As far as Rahul Gandhi is concerned, he is still needs more training and time to come up to that level. Apart from lacking charisma, Rahul has to go a long way to broaden his mass base so that he can be acceptable to the masses.
In their quest for retaining power at the Centre and being bigger partners of the coalition, both BJP and the Congress have succumbed to the pressures of regional coalition partners by putting national interest on the backburner. The UPA under the Congress signed civil nuclear deal with the United States but buckled under the pressure from the Left parties to defer it for the time being. It is debatable whether the nuclear deal is India’s national interest or not but the manner in which the UPA buckled under pressure from the Left parties the fact that the governance by the UPA is not being done according to the coalition principles. When it comes to Nandigram, Left parties again exert pressure to prove wrong things right.
There is no consensus among the coalition partners on broad national issues. The regional issues get precedence and the resultant impact is discernible in regional parties taking credit without doing anything. Regional parties capitalize on the weaknesses of the national parties and don’t miss any opportunity that comes their way. In other words, regional satraps have assumed immense significance under the coalition culture and their dictates have to be agreed to by the bigger partners willy-nilly in order to remain in power. As coalition politics is order of the day and regional parties cannot be expected to change their attitude and behaviour overnight, such a state of affairs is likely to continue. And it will be an open invitation to political chaos unless the national parties become alert and revamp their organizational structure and become all-catch parties.
Declining Social Ethos
The India society is passing from aggregation to segregation particularly in the urban areas where materialism and invasion of Western values are being adopted by the middle class at the expense of traditional values which for centuries have kept the family life closely knit. The declining trends in social ethos are reflected in the mannerism, heating habits, dress code and even the way people talk. However, the family values are deeply ingrained among the Indian people and such values cannot be easily eroded. However, the fast pace of globalization is permeating Western influence, values and mannerism so silently that number of its votaries is multiplying. This silent ‘revolution’ can wield adverse impact on Indian social life.
The sudden augmentation in divorce rates and mounting violence against women is the testimony of the fact of declining ethical values in Indian society. Such incidents frequently happen in the Western countries where culture is surviving on ad-hocism where as Indian culture is very ancient and its values are deeply ingrained in the daily life and cannot be easily eroded. The official statistics show a miserable plight of Indian women in the wake of frequent incidents of rape, infanticide especially of girl child, growing incidents of violence against women etc. All this is taking place because of deteriorating moral values.
This is high time for NGOs to step in and save the Indian society from further decline. It is not for the government to interfere in the social and moral lives of the people. However, the government can enact laws and implement them strictly to restore order in the society. Nevertheless, the government in recent years has passed some laws to curb violence against women, prevent premature death of girl child etc. However, this does not seem enough and more needs to be done. This calls for social awakening and educating the people about the social values, culture and ethos of ancient epics and scriptures. It is a serious problem that needs to be addressed on priority basis and any neglect in correcting it in time can have serious repercussions in the long run.
There is dire need to tap the potential of the youth for harnessing their energies for popularizing the Indian ethical values through education, print and electronic media etc. Concurrently, the laws already enacted by the government should be implemented in letter and spirit and properly monitored. Emphasis should be laid on imparting moral and familial values to the young couples through the family elders as well as relatives. Even media can play positive and constructive role in this holistic task by focusing on social issues and suggesting remedial measures. The ideal families can be the centre of focus in the electronic media to inspire others to emulate their examples and follow the same ideals with a view to usher in a fresh lease of relief in the contemporary society.
Fresh Look Needed
Overall performance of Indian defence and foreign policy in recent years seldom provides a solace for the people. In other words, India is considered a ‘soft power’ that cannot safeguard the interests of its citizens abroad. Unlike other countries that are anxious to preserve the vital interests of their citizens abroad, New Delhi does not have any such policy. In recent years, many Indians had been killed by Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and the India government remained a mute spectator. Prior to that thousands of people of Indian origin had been uprooted from Uganda and Fiji and in that case also South Block remained a silent onlooker.
The Western perception of India as a former colony have not changed and they continue to regard India as a weak and soft state which is unable to protect the interests of its citizens abroad. This notion needs to be changed and the Union Government should come out with concrete policy measures to safeguard lives and properties of its citizens abroad. On the one hand, India sends many contingents as part of UN Peace-keeping forces to the war-torn areas, and on the other it suffers silently the violation of rights of its citizens. This anomaly in our foreign policy should be corrected without delay and the government should devise measures to have sound and foolproof policy that is able to protect the interests of its citizens abroad.
With its burgeoning economy, India should apply its economic clout to bargain for the acquiescence of modern, sophisticated and state-of-the-art weapons and technology from Russia, United States and other countries. India is no more a ‘satellite’ or ‘client’ state of Russia. Undoubtedly, bulk of India’s defence equipment is of Russian origin and this trend needs to be changed under the changing global geo-political conditions. We should procure latest and state-of-the art defence equipment from the open market on our terms and discard the tendency of dependence on just one source. Sovereignty, national interest and national security are not negotiable.
It is worth mentioning here that present day Russia is not erstwhile Soviet Union and 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace and Friendship has lapsed. So under the changing scenario, the nuances of international geopolitics have also undergone transformation. Russia has delayed the delivery of aircraft-carrier Gorshokov to India agreement for which had been signed at the outset of the dawn of the new millennium. Pleas based on semi-technical grounds are advanced by the Russian side to justify the delay whilst price is simultaneously quoted in violation of the agreement. India should adopt professional approach and seek other avenues also to augment its bargaining power vis-à-vis Russia.
Fresh look towards foreign policy as well as defence is the need of the hour and there should not be any compromise on India’s defence preparedness. Strategic location of India amidst war and terror affected regions of South and Central Asia calls for stringent security measures and equipping our defence forces with latest modern and sophisticated weapons. Apart from Pakistan and China, the vast coastline of India also requires a strong Navy to safeguard India’s maritime interests in the India Ocean. Besides, India’s offshore oil installations and strategically vital sea-lanes of Communications also call for strong Indian naval presence in the India Ocean for the uninterrupted flow of Indian goods and oil imports from the Gulf region. Then only, we can be sure that the country is heading towards a right direction.
By Dr. Arvind Kumar, President, India Water Foundation
Article published in News Street| December 31, 2008
