Poverty Reduction or Redux
By Dr Arvind Kumar
According to recent media reports on a preview of the US National Intelligence Council’s global forecast offered at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, it has been estimated that poverty across the planet will be virtually eliminated by 2030, with a rising middle class of some two billion people pushing for more rights and demanding more resources. While forecsting the rise of the global middle class going from one to two billion, the preview further adds that if current trends continue, the 1 billion people who live on less than a dollar a day now will drop to half that number in roughly two decades.
While dealing with the negative effects, the preview predicts food demand will rise by 50% in the next 18 years, though global population will only rise from 7.1 to 8.3 billion. Asserting that the middle-class people want middle-class diets, which are heavy in meat, requiring more water and grain to produce, the preview warns that “nearly 50% of humanity will live in water-stressed regions by 2030.” However, it strikes a note of optimism by predicting that new technological developments could help close the gap between food and water shortages and need. Predicting that more people will migrate to cities, the preview says that presently some 50% of the world lives in urban areas now will be rising to 60% by 2030.
However, this preview is silent about the growing disparities between the rich and the poor at global level which will further widen with the increase in number of billionnaires and ‘paupers’ concurrently. Will this phenomenon lead to poverty reduction or its redux?
