By Dr. Arvind Kumar, President, India Water Foundation
Glasgow (UK) is going to be the focal point of attention and attraction where an upcoming gathering comprising about 25, 000 people – representing heads of state and government, diplomats, scientists, civil society organizations and non-governmental organizations, activists and media persons – will assemble to participate in the 26th Conference of Parties or COP-26 commencing from 31 October to 12 November, being hosted by the United Kingdom under the aegis of the UNFCCC. The COP-26 is being construed as a crucial summit that could lead to major decisions pertaining to climate change. There is also optimism that the upcoming summit would be instrumental in setting new targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by human activities, especially by burning of coal, oil and gas.
The Conference of Parties or COP on climate change is almost a regular annual phenomenon since 1995 when the first COP was held and the COP-26 was in fact, scheduled to be held in 2020 and it had to be postponed in the wake of the spread of COVID-19 pandemic worldwide and its being held in 2021 epitomizes special significance because scientific community has called upon the nations to make an immediate, sharp shift away from fossil fuels if the humankind is to thwart the most catastrophic effects of climate change.
Challenges
The world is currently confronting a suite of challenges pertaining to climate change and these, inter alia, include global warming, as shown in Figure below, extreme weather events associated with climate change – including heat waves, floods, wildfires, rising sea levels, depletion of natural resources, etc. The past decade was perhaps the warmest on record and spurred governments worldwide to agree on the necessity of an urgent collective action to cope with the vagaries of climate change.
The 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change, popularly, known as Paris Agreement, entailed the unanimous agreement of the participating countries to make suitable changes to keep global warming ‘well below’ 20 C above pre-industrial levels, and to endeavor for 1.50 C in order to avert climatic catastrophe. Under the Paris Agreement, countries were called upon to keep making massive emission cuts until reaching net zero by 2050. And for the COP-26, the participating countries are required to envisage their plans to cut emissions by 2030.
Financial crunch, especially for the developing countries, along with climate justice are other challenges to be dealt with by the COP-26. Developed countries are mostly responsible for GHG emissions whereas developing countries tend to emit less pollution per capita and their past records show that the developing countries had not been responsible for most emissions. Developing countries, specifically the least developed countries along with coastal and small island countries, apart from emitting less GHG emissions, are also adversely affected by the vagaries of climate change. These countries have been asking for more monetary and technological assistance to be able to reduce their emissions and to cope with climate change. There is every likelihood of developing countries affected by climate change asking for compensation at COP-26.
It is worth mentioning that developed countries in the past had pledged $ 100 billion every year to help poorer countries by 2020, and the UN estimates in 2019 showed that the target was likely to be missed and it is in this context that these countries are likely to call upon developed nations to commit more money at the COP-26 summit.
Some observers opine that it would be interesting to watch China and fossil fuel producing countries making commitments at COP-26. China is perhaps world’s biggest polluter and it has made huge investments in coal stations almost worldwide. It would be worth watching as to how and up to what extent China and fossil fuel producing countries would be willing to reduce their dependence on coal and fossil fuels.
Media reports make it discernible that on the one hand, some countries make lofty commitments to reduce GHG emissions, while on the other hand, the same countries are still contemplating of investing in coal and fossil fuels to extract huge quantities of energy in the coming years. Media reports also mention about a recently published UN report that indicates as to how the world’s largest oil-producing countries plan to continue to use coal and fossil fuels, irrespective of the promises made by these countries under the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce GHG emissions and limit global warming. Contrary to promises made under the Paris Agreement, many countries are planning to double the production of fossil fuels by 2030 and this information comes at a time when the COP-26 is scheduled to be held. In this regard, Executive Director of UN Environment Programme has called upon the governments to step up efforts by “taking rapid and immediate steps to close fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition.”
Opportunities
If there are challenges before the COP-26, there are ample opportunities as well. There are possibilities of many countries having set out their plans to minimize GHG emissions prior to the commencement of the summit and this information may become handy during the summit. The possibility of new announcements during the summit also cannot be ruled out. These announcements may inter alia include: Making a swift switch to electric cars and bikes; expediting the phasing out of coal power; focus on planting more trees; and focusing on protecting vulnerable communities from the vagaries of climate change etc.
Way Forward
Interestingly, optimism is likely to be the buzzword with different set of countries from their respective perspectives as the curtain gets drawn on 13 November on COP-26. The UK, being the host country would expect unanimity and consensus on all issues, especially with regard to recommitment to net zero emissions by 2050, and big reduction in emissions by 2030. While expecting rapid reduction of fossil fuels, the UK would also expect speedy transition to renewable energy along with priority to protect nature. Developing countries would expect enhanced financial package along with technological assistance to enable them adapt to rising temperatures and cope with the vagaries of climate change.
Nevertheless, the objectives of the Paris Agreement need to be realized, especially the goal of 1.50 CWithout any further delay and anything short of it would render COP-26 as merely a routine summit that failed to achieve its objective. It is worth noting that the Paris Agreement officially started in 2020 and COP-26 will be the first meeting since then. It is to be seen as to what extent COP-26 succeeds in making Paris Agreement deliver on the change that is direly required to address rapid climate change. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) constitute the central pillar of the Paris Agreement, and these NDCs are pledges of countries to the Paris Agreement that, among other issues, contain details about countries’ planned efforts to reduce their carbon emissions. Undoubtedly, there are few rules governing what an NDC should contain, and it is left to the countries to decide. Nevertheless, countries are expected to be honest, determined and sincere in their submission of the NDCs.
However, a disturbing development that may mar the expectations of a fruitful outcome of the COP-26 is the huge leakage of documents, as reported recently by BBC showing as to how countries are trying to alter a crucial scientific report on how to tackle climate change. This leakage informs Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia among the countries asking the United Nations to play down the need for moving rapidly away from fossil fuels. It is also revealed that some rich nations are questioning the rationale for paying more to poorer countries to move to greener technologies. If these revelations are true, then it would be a setback for the success of COP-26.
