Kharif or summer acreage has shrunk nearly 39% until July 12, the most in five years, according to agriculture ministry data.
A weak monsoon and a consumption slowdown pose twin threats to the recovery of the country’s rural distress as uneven rains have left a major dent on farm operations so far.
Kharif or summer acreage has shrunk nearly 39% until July 12, the most in five years, according to agriculture ministry data. The June-to-September monsoon was short by 33% in its first month, the highest deficiency for June in four years.
On Sunday, rainfall deficiency fell to about 12.5%, mainly because of good rainfall between July 4 and July 11. But a break in the rains-bearing system till July 24th, according to the Met department, has sparked concerns about further impact on sowing.
Planting of crops, such as rice, pulses, groundnut, coarse cereals, sorghum and maize, among others, account for half of India’s annual food output. The time to complete planting some of these is running out.
“Farmers can continue sowing rice till August but sowing for some important crops such as cotton, pigeon pea or tur, soybean, groundnut and maize must be completed by July 20th,” said Prof Jeet Singh Sandhu, the vice-chancellor of Ayodhya-based Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology. Delay in completing sowing will have an effect on yields, he said.
The monsoon is lifeblood of Asia’s third-largest economy as nearly 60% of the country’s cropped area doesn’t have irrigation coverage. Although agriculture’s share in the country’s gross domestic product is about 17%, farm incomes are critical for growth; nearly half of all Indians depend on a farm-based livelihood. If rural incomes are impacted, it could worsen a current growth-sapping consumption slowdown. Rural buyers account for nearly half of all motorcycles sales, according to Citibank Research.
Corporate revenue is seen growing 5-6% in the first quarter of fiscal 2020, the slowest pace in two years, because of a broad-based tapering of demand for consumer items, chunk of it in rural India, according to Miren Lodha, director, research, of the credit ratings firm CRISIL Ltd.
“On the urban side, passenger car sales continued to contract sharply…while rural indicators like two-wheeler and tractor sales growth continued to also contract sharply,” said Sonal Varma, a research analyst with financial services company Nomura. Barring jute and groundnut, sowing of most summer crops are behind last year’s levels. A senior government official said the “sowing picture” is fast changing as rainfall deficiency had come down in many areas. Still, overall paddy sowing has been less by 2.55 million hectares, or down 12% overall. Lower rice acreage has been reported particularly in Chhattisgarh (0.283 million ha), Bihar (0.266 million ha), Assam (0.257 million ha), Uttar Pradesh (0.243 million ha), West Bengal (0.182 million ha), Arunachal Pradesh (0.122 million ha), Karnataka (0.087 million ha) and Manipur (0.057 million ha), among other states, said official data.
Pulses, a key summer crop grown by millions of cultivators, have seen a major decline and among all pulses, the sharpest decline in the area has been for pigeon pea or tur. Sowing of pulses may increase in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh due better rainfall, said Jatin Singh of Skymet, a private weather forecaster-cum-farm risk management firm.
“We have received good rains only in the past one week. I am changing my crops. I will grow only rice instead of taking pulses in between because that will be risky,” said Salik Ram, a member of farmer producer organisation in Uttar Pradesh’s Faizabad.
By Zia Haq New Delhi|HT
