Dr. Arvind Kumar*
In his address on the occasion of 75th Independence Day of India Prime minister Modiji set an ambitious goal for the country which is to become a developed nation by the time India celebrates its 100th Independence Day in 2047. As per a research paper by Central Bank India will need to grow at a rate of 7.6% annually for the next 25 years to become a developed nation. India’s per capita income is currently estimated at $2,500, while it must be more than $21,664 by 2047, as per World Bank standards, to be classified as a high-income country.
Actually what does it entail to become a developed country?
A developed country typically has political stability, socially cohesive, mature and with a sophisticated economy. These economies may not have a high growth rate currently but must have shown rapid growth in the past. Their citizens typically enjoy access to quality health care and higher education. India has been making significant progress in various areas, and there are several factors that are considered when a country is classified as developed. These factors include economic indicators, infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and overall standard of living. India is currently lower-middle income as per World Bank, with medium Human Development Index as per United Nations. Countries like South Korea, Singapore are way ahead then India on several aspects because the population growth was in control and this dramatically shifted their per capita incomes on to a higher trajectory. But we have to remember they are far smaller in size as well.
In the last couple of decades, many indices on the quality of life, such as average life expectancy and maternal mortality have improved. According to World Bank’s latest India Development Update (IDU) the Bank’s flagship half yearly report on the Indian economy, observes that despite significant global challenges, India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY22/23 at 7.2%. India’s growth rate was the second highest among G20 countries and almost twice the average for emerging market economies. Comparing India with smaller European developed countries like Luxembourg, Liechtestien etc. is unfair because our challenges are absolutely different. With mammoth size, varied geography, enormous population it needs approach which is human centric, not just top down but bottom up as well.
Is it enough for us to become Viksit Bharat by 2047?
Turning the tide on challenges
India has become the most populous country in the world and by 2050, India is projected to have a population of 1.67 billion. Rapid population growth can exacerbate challenges related to hunger and poverty, according to Liu Zhenmin, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combating hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult. As India continues to progress, it is likely that it will experience improvements in these areas, leading to a higher standard of living for its citizens. It could potentially see improvements in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and overall quality of life. This could include better transportation systems, higher-quality healthcare facilities, improved access to education, a more robust economy and a higher average income. It’s important to note that the path to becoming a developed country is complex and multifaceted, and it requires sustained efforts across various sectors. The timeline for India to reach developed status can vary depending on many factors, including government policies, international relations, and global economic conditions.
Although this rising population is a challenge eating on the resources however, this also gives India potential advantages, especially at a time when countries around the world are facing declining birth rates and tight human resources. India’s abundant human resources force makes it well placed to achieve domestic growth goals and to capitalize on global efforts to diversify supply chains. Both of these potential outcomes will serve the nation’s geopolitical ambitions well. However, there is a clear need to accelerate human capacity up-skilling and to strengthen women’s participation in the workforce to achieve its economic potential. The drop, even amid greater female education, partly reflects the reduced need for women to work, as higher wages for men have boosted household incomes. This will address poverty, hunger and women empowerment, factors on which we lag behind. We need cooperation, coordination and convergence by sensitizing, galvanizing and incentivizing our human resources for achieving amritkaal targets.
Do you not feel that civil societies are the best drivers for this change and in the largest democracy space and scope for civil society needs to be strengthened?
Way Ahead
Whether India achieves the status of a developed country by 2047 or not, that is not important, what matters is that we pursue developed country status because that will enable a decent life for hundreds of millions of Indians. However, status quoist policies will not work. From the role of the State to reforms of factors of production, a lot has to change. India’s demographic dividend will help drive the country’s domestic and global ambitions, but appropriate and timely policy interventions will be a key in achieving the desired goals. Without substantial improvements in human capital India can’t achieve much. Climate change and the impact of disruptive technologies make a transformative course not just inevitable but urgent. The road is fraught with challenges such as still-poor infrastructure in many rural areas. But through continued investment in these sectors, India could make itself one of the world’s great economic powerhouses while offering the global community a model of how to achieve inclusive, sustainable prosperity. What a great service it would be to the world if the full might of India’s nearly 1.4 billion people were applied to creating a cleaner, greener, tech-smart future for us all.
Most importantly, we must focus not just on the endpoint but on the journey itself. Commitment to good governance is the key to stride on the path of inclusive and equitable development and avoiding damage to the social fabric of the country, with people at the centre of development goals, India will not only be developed but also be a happier country in 2047. That’s a goal worth pursuing.
*Editor, Focus Global Reporter
