The UPA government, headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has stepped into the third year of its second term on 23 May 2011. However, the celebration was overshadowed by taints of scams, rising prices and decision-making paralysis. In the midst of all these, the Congress’ strained tie with the DMK remained hot topic of the day with the DMK party dispatching just TR Baalu for token participation in the celebratory dinner at the Prime Minister’s residence.
However, no one from UP Chief Minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) attended the function. The UPA Government’s relation has soured with the BSP following Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Bhatta-Parsaul and his remarks on killings and rape in the two villages of Greater Noida during the anti-land acquisition agitation of farmers in earlier May.
Though Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi put up brave faces and lauded the achievements of the Government, it was clear from their speeches that the issue of “corruption” weighed heavily on their minds. In an obvious attempt to deflect criticism about paralysis of governance, Sonia Gandhi announced that the Government will pass the much-awaited bills on land acquisition, food security and Lokpal in the next session of Parliament.
Scams
Dogged by scams and unable to move ahead on economic reforms in a big way, the UPA government is struggling to come out of its shackles. From 2G scam, the Commonwealth Games scandal, the Adarsh Housing row and the P J Thomas affair, the Prime Minister may not have had such a harrowing time in the last few months than when his government was surviving on the support of the Left parties during the first term.
In the 2G spectrum allocation scam case even the Supreme Court was prompted to pull up the Prime Minister asking him why no action was taken against the then Telecom Minister A Raja despite several indicators pointing to a looming scam ahead.
Apart from Raja landing himself in Tihar jail, the other bigwigs to give him company there are Congress MP Suresh Kalmadi, charged with irregularities in the conduct of the Commonwealth Games, and DMK MP Kanimozhi, not a good advertisement for the government at celebrations time. The Niira Radia tapes had their own story to tell on the matters of governance. With egg on its face, Government had to eat a humble pie on the appointment of P J Thomas as the Chief Vigilance Commissioner.
The winter session of Parliament was washed out entirely amid a strident demand for a JPC into the 2G scam, being dubbed by the opposition as the biggest scandal in independent India with a notional loss of Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the exchequer.
However, Prime Minister asserted that the guilty in scams will be punished through due process of law and steps will be taken to prevent them in future. In her brief remarks at the release of the report, Gandhi said, “We will take the issue of corruption head on and demonstrate, through actions, and not words, that we mean what we say.”
UPA Report Card
The report card, a 118-page report released on 23 May 2011,, emphasized that the terms of reference for the GoM on Corruption include fast-tracking of all cases of public servants accused of corruption and ensuring full transparency in public procurement and contracts, including enunciation of public procurement standards and a public procurement policy and introduction of an open and competitive system of exploiting natural resources.
Noting that India has ratified the United Nations Convention Against Corruption, it said, “with a view to ensuring full compliance with this Convention, the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials and Officials of Public International Organizations Bill 2011 has been introduced in the Lok Sabha on March 25, 2011.”
The report also covers many specific sectors like economic situation, agriculture, rural development, education, external and internal challenges, railways and environmental issues. Noting that food inflation was a major concern in the last financial year, the Prime Minister said his Government took several measures to address the problem and continued its efforts in 2010-11 and “intend to do more in the future”.
Assembly Elections
The only relief that came for the Congress heading the ruling coalition at the Centre was the recent results of the Assembly elections. The party retained its government in Assam convincingly, managed to wrest one in Kerala and was in a happy position in West Bengal where the ally knocked the Left Front out of power after 34 years.
Other Vexing Issues
The issue of price rise continued to confront the Prime Minister with the government appearing helpless and the unprecedented rise in fuel prices that could have a cascading effect. Topping all these was the controversy over the “most wanted” list of fugitives sent to Pakistan adding further embarrassment to the government. With the dependence on the Left parties no more there, it was expected that UPA-II would be able to carry out crucial reforms of the finance sector and the retail industry. But nothing seems to have moved on the issues.
With corruption being the flavour of the political season, Gandhian Anna Hazare shook the entire political class by his indefinite hunger strike at the Jantar Mantar here in the four days of his protest action that brought the government to its knees on the issue of a stronger Lok Pal bill.
In fact, the second year itself had not started on an auspicious note as 22 May 2010 celebrations for the first anniversary were cancelled following a plane crash in Mangalore.
Opposition Parties’ Reaction
With government in problems, Opposition parties, both the Left and the Right, never had it so good. Opposition leaders say that the UPA-II was bound to be doomed from the start. Samajwadi Party General Secretary Mohan Singh wonders as to how the coalition could work when it has “no agenda” like the Common Minimum Programme of the UPA-I which has done “good work” like NREGA and Right to information.
CPI leader D Raja echoed the feelings insisting that the UPA-II has no future and “it will collapse”. “It is just a matter of time,” he feels. CPI’s paper New Age wrote on 21 May 2011: “The two years of the UPA-II should be marked by noting that it is a ruling combination that blindly follows the disastrous course of economic neo-liberalism and wishes to promote a bi-polar politics in which the country is always ruled by the upholders of this disastrous economic policy. The Left and the working people at large have to come out on streets more vigorously to foil this sinister conspiracy and to help chalk out an independent course.”
The Bharatiya Janata Party has termed the United Progressive Alliance government’s two-year regime as a “saga of betrayals” and said, “its performance is thoroughly disappointing”. Senior BJP leader M. Venkaiah Naidu has said “the UPA’s performance is shameful and scamful.” Indecision, inaction, incompetence, irreparable damage to the institutions were the hallmarks of the UPA government, which has completed two years in office.
However, the NCP General Secretary D P Tripathi, whose party is part of the UPA-II, obviously disagrees. He claims that UPA-II is marching under the leadership of Manmohan Singh and it was a ‘Uniquely Popular Alliance’.
UPA‘s Partners
Making the best out of a bad situation, the refrain of Congress leaders from Gandhi downwards was that no party or government had acted so speedily when incidents of graft had come to light.
A Congress leader said in exasperation that the government has hardly any scope not to take action when the country was being virtually run by the courts, the CBI and the media; the remark inadvertently reflected the drift and the crisis of governance.
Faced with problems, the UPA-II failed to project a cohesive picture with Prime Minister himself pleading that he was not as big a culprit as he was being made out to be and that he has to work under coalition compulsions.
While the DMK is in political doghouse, there have been growing strains between the Sharad Pawar-headed NCP and Congress. Mamata Banerjee’s focus has shifted to West Bengal after she assumed power, ending the 34 year Left rule.
Though the relations between the Congress and DMK have nosedived following the arrest of Tamil Nadu CM M Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi, Baalu was seated next to Sonia during the release of the report. And even later, the two leaders were seated side-by-side at the dinner table, indicating that there was still some scope for improvement of relations in the future.
Challenges Ahead
The third year is a crucial year for any Government at the centre, as it will decide the course of the future direction. Realizing this, Prime Minister himself has admitted that there was a need for course correction. What will be the challenges facing the Congress and the Government next year?
Politically, the Telengana crisis is staring at the Government in the next few days and it is a volatile and sensitive issue. The Congress has to take a decision one way or the other and either way there is going to be trouble in Andhra Pradesh, which may lead to the President’s Rule.
The other immediate problem is to tackle the yoga Guru Swamy Ramdev, who is threatening to go on fast with about 50,000 of his followers on the black money issue. His demands like nationalization of assets, demonetization etc requires not only debate but also political will. Will the government yield to Ramdev’s demand as it did on the Anna Hazare fast on the Lok Pal bill?
The Government has to answer why it is not fulfilling it 2009 election promise to bring back the black money within 100 days of coming to power. On the political side, preparations have already started for the 2012 crucial Assembly elections to UP and Gujarat.
The party’s concentration, aided by the centre will be totally on boosting its image. Prime Minister started his third year by announcing compensation to the injured farmers in Bhatta Parsaul and Achchapur villages in Greater Noida whose cause the Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi has taken up in a big way. The Congress thinks that the proposed bills like the Lok Pal Bill, Food Security, Land Acquisition Bill and the Communal Harmony Bill may give some boost to the party and the Government.
The most important challenge is the image correction. Singh and Sonia Gandhi have taken note of the concern of the public on curbing corruption and black money. Some measures have been taken already and cases are going on against Raja, Kalmadi and others pertaining to some of the scams. These cases may bring out more embarrassing facts. The public is getting disenchanted with the Government.
To meet the challenges of land related issues, the centre will also have to pass the Land Acquisition Bill in the next session. The Government has to bring to Parliament other important bills like the Food security, communal harmony bill, Lok Pal bill and other controversial issues. There is a chance that it may even bring the jinxed women reservation bill before the UP polls. Facing a minority in the Rajya Sabha, each bill needs a formidable strategy for the floor managers. Even the UPA strength is razor thin now.
This is where the question of the stability of the Government comes in. The photograph of the leaders sitting in the dais on Sunday evening showed the real state of affairs. The DMK ministers boycotted the function to protest against Kanimozhi arrest, the party was represented only by its parliamentary party leader T.R. Balu. With the strained relationship between the Congress and the DMK it is only a question of days when the DMK will withdraw from the Government.
The West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee also did not attend the function leaving it to her parliamentary party leader Sudip Bandopadhyaya. Although the Trinamool Congress relationship is good at present, Mamata, with her mercurial behavior can give trouble on any issue. The NCP- Congress relationship is strained in Maharashtra affecting even convening of its cabinet meetings.
The Government cannot depend on the support of the SP or BSP – both have high stakes in UP polls – to bail it out all the time. They will demand their pound of flesh and moreover, it may not suit them to be seen as supporting the Congress before the UP polls.
The other important challenge is tackling the price rise and inflation. While Singh has patted himself on his back on the 8 per cent economic growth last year or the prediction of an 8.5 per cent growth next year people are more worried as to the day to day problems of buying vegetables and rice and wheat. The frequent petrol and diesel price hike has affected this more.
The price rise and inflation will adversely affect the prospects more than anything else.
There is still hope for the Congress as the left is still licking its wounds and the BJP is not yet ready. The opposition space is being taken by people like Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev, If the mid course correction is taken up with determination; there is some chance of survival for the Congress.
By Madan Lal
