Dr. Arvind Kumar*
The Tianjin SCO Summit 2025 signalled more than regional diplomacy, it hinted at a shifting world order shaped by climate disruptions, tariff wars, and multipolar alignments. For India, it underscored both opportunities and risks: securing Eurasian energy and connectivity, leveraging SCO–BRICS convergence for financial alternatives, and countering terrorism while navigating China’s dominance. The Summit reflected the rise of flexible, issue-based multilateralism, gradual de-dollarization, and alternative financial systems. India’s way forward lies in smart balancing bridging democracies and authoritarian powers alike while positioning itself as a leader of the Global South and a voice for inclusive, future-ready collaborations.
The story of our times is written in the language of interconnected crises. Climate Change has ceased to be a distant concern; it now defines the foundations of economic resilience, social cohesion, environmental degradation and political stability. From floods disrupting supply chains to wildfires displacing communities, and from melting glaciers altering water security to pollution eroding public health, climate change has become the unseen architect of geopolitics subtly but decisively shaping the choices of nations.
Amid this backdrop, America’s tariff-centered strategy has added a further layer of turbulence. What is framed in Washington as industrial protection has in practice unsettled global trade corridors, weakened trust among partners, and laid bare the vulnerabilities of interconnected economies. The imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August 2025 illustrates how economic tools are now deployed as geopolitical weapons. This coercive turn has sharpened the paradox of India’s self-reliance: while Make in India aspires to autonomy, 30% of industrial goods still originate from China and nearly 70% of pharmaceuticals depend on Chinese inputs, while over $40 billion in Japanese investment sustains India’s industrial ecosystem. The reliance is equally stark in energy, Russia now supplies around 36% of India’s crude oil, peaking at 40% in June 2025. These dependencies underscore why India cannot afford to anchor its future on unilateral partners and why regional platforms like the SCO have become indispensable for preserving strategic flexibility.
Contradictions and way to Convergence
It is in this backdrop that the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin assumed heightened significance. Far from ceremonial, the summit emerged as a strategic laboratory for a world in flux. Leaders of China, Russia, India, Iran, and Central Asian states convened at a moment when the Ukraine conflict continues to unsettle Eurasia, the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace framework has rattled regional powers, and tariff wars threaten to redraw trade routes. Their joint communiqué, deliberately silent on Ukraine yet firm on sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the rejection of unilateral strikes, projected an alternative grammar of international relations, one that sought to blend stability, development, and cultural recognition.
For India, the Tianjin summit represented an inflection point in its engagement with Eurasian multilateralism. The immediate gains were clear: enhanced access to Central Asian energy resources and markets, a multilateral emphasis on energy cooperation through 2030, and the prospect of financing alternatives through the proposed SCO Development Bank, backed by Chinese grants and loans, which could support infrastructure without Western conditionalities. Connectivity also featured prominently, where India sought to carve space against China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Prime Minister Modi reiterated that connectivity must respect sovereignty and territorial integrity; an implicit rejection of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor while advancing the International North-South Transport Corridor and Chabahar Port as credible alternatives.
Here, the SCO’s increasing intersection with BRICS adds another layer of significance. With BRICS expanding in 2024 to include major energy and commodity powers such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Iran, the overlap between the two groupings is widening. Both now share key members China, India, Russia, and Iran and complementary objectives, from de-dollarization to building inclusive financial architectures. The proposed SCO Development Bank inevitably drew comparisons with the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), hinting at the possibility of coordination between the two. Such convergence strengthens efforts to craft a non-Western financial ecosystem insulated from conditional lending and sanctions regimes. For India, this dual engagement broadens strategic options: SCO offers security and connectivity leverage in Eurasia, while BRICS extends an economic coalition spanning energy producers, technology powers, and emerging markets.
The counterterrorism dimension reinforced this strategic calculus. The SCO’s condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack and its renewed commitment to combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism provided India with a multilateral platform to internationalize its concerns on cross-border terrorism. Institutional innovations such as new SCO centers on transnational crime, cybersecurity, and anti-drug cooperation open space for India to contribute expertise and shape the regional security architecture. Yet, the structural constraints remain: China’s dominance, often reinforced by Pakistan, allows it to dilute Indian initiatives, while the Russia-China-Pakistan triangle in energy and connectivity occasionally sidelines Indian positions.
At the same time, the lessons from China’s development model loom large for India’s economic trajectory. China’s focus on reforms, labour-intensive industries, and the creation of Special Economic Zones from 1980 illustrate how integrated strategies can transform economies. Its more recent emphasis on high-quality growth and the fusion of real and digital economies offers a roadmap for India’s ambition to become a knowledge-based manufacturing hub. Yet India’s democratic framework and pluralistic society provide distinctive advantages that China cannot replicate, creating opportunities for innovative governance that blends efficiency with inclusivity.
This infusion of political symbolism, economic strategy, and social outreach underscores why the Tianjin summit was more than just another regional meeting. It reflected how nations are experimenting with collective resilience in an age of fragmentation. Differences remain profound; India’s refusal to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia’s unease with China’s growing dominance, Iran’s anxieties about encirclement but the very act of convergence is telling. In this light, the SCO–BRICS overlap reflects a new mode of flexible, transactional multilateralism, less about rigid blocs and more about pragmatic issue-based cooperation.
The implications of this emerging world order are far-reaching. Economically, it signals gradual de-dollarization, the rise of alternative financial systems, and the building of resilient supply chains that reduce dependence on single powers. Politically, it suggests the proliferation of flexible “minilateral” arrangements, enabling cooperation based on shared interests rather than ideology. Strategically, it points to a multipolar balance where no single power dictates terms, compelling consensus and consultation. For India, this landscape offers both risks and opportunities: regional instability, fragmented governance, and the China-Pakistan-Russia alignment are pressing concerns, but at the same time, India has the chance to position itself as a bridge between developed and developing nations, a leader of the Global South, and a voice for multilateral reform.
Way Forward
The way forward demands sophisticated diplomatic balancing. India must deepen partnerships with like-minded democracies such as Japan and Australia, engage pragmatically with authoritarian powers like China and Russia, and lead coalitions of developing nations that share its vision of inclusive growth. Its success will depend on “smart balancing” maximizing opportunities while preserving strategic autonomy and democratic values. The SCO Summit, therefore, was not simply about statements or declarations; it was about signalling a shift in the world’s centre of gravity. The intertwined forces of ecology, economy, and geopolitics converged in Tianjin, offering a glimpse of how regional cooperation may be the most pragmatic antidote to fragmentation. The future will belong to nations that master the art of “futuristic collaborations”; partnerships that transcend boundaries and open new pathways to shared prosperity in an uncertain global landscape.
*Editor, Focus Global Reporter
