‘G-Zero’ – As Greatest Global Risk
By Dr Arvind Kumar
G-Zero or a world without a clearly defined superpower is being perceived as at top of the geopolitical risk scale for 2011. According to a forecast report recently released by Eurasia Group, a New York-based political consultancy firm, this new political reality will intensify all other top risks for 2011, including the potential for an uncontained economic crisis in Europe, reluctance by China to respond to growing international pressure, and provocations from North Korea. Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group, in a recent interview, said: “Now, we look at where the world is, and we realize it is in indeed a new world order in a dramatic way, in a way that when the Soviet Union collapsed it wasn’t a new world order. The Soviet Union’s [collapse] led to the G7+1, which was a speeding-up of globalization. There were some new countries to invest in, it was Europe getting stronger, but it was globalization that had been occurring — and it became faster.”
With the G-Zero, geopolitics now challenges globalization in the absence of effective international leadership. And that is a new world order, and that’s why gold is so high, and that is why corporations are keeping so much money on the sidelines because they are very uncertain of where this new world order is actually heading. Cybersecurity, China’s moves, North Korea, capital controls, US gridlock etc., are regarded as other top risks.
