By , AccuWeather meteorologist
Severe Tropical Cyclone Harold, in the Coral Sea, is forecast to bring widespread flooding and major wind damage to islands in the South Pacific with landfall expected in the coming days.
Last week, forecasters began monitoring a slowly developing area of low pressure in the Coral Sea, near Australia’s Cape York Peninsula.
On Thursday, the low moved just west of the Solomon Islands and developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone. The storm was given the name Harold by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Following a southerly path, Harold moved through an area of warm water and low wind shear, allowing the storm to gain strength through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Late in the day on Saturday, Harold became a Category 4 tropical cyclone, equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
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The forward progression of Harold continued to slow down through Sunday as the storm remained in an environment conducive for tropical development.
By Sunday night, the Harold strengthened into a Category 5 tropical cyclone, equivalent to a moderate Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic.
“Harold is likely near peak intensity, though a little additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours can not be ruled out,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
During the beginning of the week, Harold will begin to pick up forward speed as the storm turns to the east, taking a path over Vanuatu late Monday and into Tuesday.
“Harold is expected to be near-peak intensity while crossing Vanuatu and can bring an extreme risk to lives and property,” warned Douty.
“Rainfall of 300 mm (12 inches) is likely to fall across northern and central Vanuatu, with potentially up to 600 mm (24 inches) in areas where persistent rain bands set up. This is true even away from the center of the storm,” he added.
There will be potential for major wind damage, especially near the eye of the storm where wind gusts can reach 225 km/h (140 mph).
“In addition to wind and rain, storm surge and high seas will lead to coastal flooding and make any marine travel potentially deadly,” said Douty. “The worst of the impacts are expected to remain to the north of the capitol city of Port Vila.”
As Harold moves away from Vanuatu into the middle of the week, it will run into an area of increased wind shear, causing the storm to begin to weaken.
By Wednesday, Harold is forecast to pass just south of Fiji. While the storm is expected to have lost some wind intensity, it can still bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the island nation.
Residents in Tonga should monitor the storm into the end of next week as Harold could pass close enough to bring impacts to the island before tracking away from land.
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